dexfarkin: (Default)
[personal profile] dexfarkin
Assuming that the overturning of Proposition 8 is upheld in the federal courts, by the end of this year, 23.3% of the American population will have the right to wed their chosen partner regardless of gender. This will include the two states that represent the largest economies in the country. That being the case (and the very real possibility that several more states will establish similar rulings in the next year), while a federal version of the law will not be put forward before the 2012 elections, there will be a ruling that finds laws which allow individual states to not recognize same sex marriages performed out of state as legal are unconstituitional.

Historically, that's the tipping point. As Loving vs Virginia effectively ended any ability to enforce anti-miscegenation laws, the sheer numbers and mobility of Americans will force a similar challenge to the Supreme Court sooner than later.

Date: 2011-06-25 05:44 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] miss-porcupine.livejournal.com
Not to poke a hole in your happy balloon, but you should probably remember that the states passing gay marriage laws tend to be the most liberal and, not coincidentally at all, the ones with the most net out-migration because of taxes. NY, for example, is losing two congressional seats because the population is fleeing in droves. General US population shift is toward the South and SW (not California, which is hemorrhaging people), regions less likely to be interested in progressive legislation.

Date: 2011-06-25 06:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dexfarkin.livejournal.com
My point was that is has nothing to do with legislation. It's the court challenge that the population size and mobility will force to happen soon. Once anti-gay marriage laws are found as unconstituitional, they will end up having as much validity as anti-miscegenation laws, many of which stayed on the books in places like Alabama into the 2000s.


Date: 2011-06-25 07:26 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] diamond-dust06.livejournal.com
You mean if Prop 8 is *not* upheld, unless MA's economy overtook CA's recently.

Date: 2011-06-25 08:30 pm (UTC)
merhawk: (Answer The Question)
From: [personal profile] merhawk
Assuming that Proposition 8 is not upheld...

I've fixed that for you. Unless you meant to say "Assuming that the ruling against Proposition 8 is upheld..."

Date: 2011-06-26 12:58 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pathology-doc.livejournal.com
by the end of this year, 23.3% of the American population will have the right to wed their chosen partner regardless of gender.

Perhaps you should append the words "...who previously did not."

Date: 2011-06-26 09:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tywyllwch.livejournal.com
California still hasn't legalized it. When that state goes I will say it's a tipping point. It's still illegal to be gay in a number of states. Including the one I live in. It's not enforced here but if we went to some of the more rural areas of Texas and someone wanted to be a dick? My roommate could end up in jail legitimately. You're only looking, right now, at most of New England, plus Iowa and NY that allow same sex marriage. CA would be a huge win, especially since that state on the whole is not as liberal as people like to think it is. But until that happens...I think you're being premature.

Massachusetts (viva home state!) legalized it in 2004. Seven years later the sixth state has passed it. That's less than one state every twelve months. I am not very hopeful for the "sooner than later" thing.

Date: 2011-06-27 12:55 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dexfarkin.livejournal.com
Has nothing to do with the liberalization of the states. My point is that once you have this level of population with access and the mobility of Americans right now, you will have a challenge of a legal same-sex marriage being unrecognized in transition between states. That will reach the Supreme Court eventually, and once you have a judical ruling that declares it unconstituitional, it's over. In 1972, most states weren't liberal enough to overturn their anti-miscegenation laws either. But the ruling essentially invalidated them regardless of public opinion one way or the other.

April 2017

S M T W T F S
      1
2345678
9101112131415
1617 1819202122
23242526272829
30      

Most Popular Tags

Style Credit

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags
Page generated Jul. 13th, 2025 11:01 pm
Powered by Dreamwidth Studios