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SCOTUS Thoughts
Jun. 28th, 2012 03:40 pmSo, Roberts surprised everyone by siding with the liberal side of SCOTUS, while the expected swing vote Kennedy parked himself with the conservative wing.
Scalia wrote a dissent that was a majority opinion, and Ginsberg wrote a majority opinion that was a dissent, suggesting that Roberts hadn't entirely been open on how he'd vote.
CNN has a Dewey moment, declaring the individual mandate struck down. It takes 17 minutes to correct, which is about a week and a half in internet time. Not exacting a shining moment, and really more evidence of a pattern of decay emerging in the former apex of cable news.
While the conservatives have lost the battle, there's plenty to suggest that they've gained some ground in the war. The normally shit-weasel insane Erikson actually makes a salient point that Roberts defection retains the illusion of an impartial SCOTUS over an issue that is better fought other ways, while still limiting an precedent for expanded federal powers and reframing the mandate as a tax for the 2012 election. While he's certainly grasping at straws, he's got a point that repealing the individual mandate would ultimately do far less to drive a conservative push than, say, the overruling of attempts to limit the effects of Citizen's United. Their decision on Monday regarding the state of Montana is a far greater blow to freedom than mandatory health insurance, regardless of how you spin in.
Finally, while the GOP picked up some helpful elements here and there, the fact is that it is a win for Obama. While we're still six months out from the election, this is a clear victory, especially once the GOP and conservatives doubled down on the 'unconstitutional' argument. The next fifty million dollar wave of advertising will be split between attacking it as a job killing tax, an unconstitutional restriction of freedoms, and a socialist plot while trying to untangle Romney from his former implementation of it as Governor, confusing supporters. Meanwhile, the narrative for the Democrats is a lot simpler - millions of Americans who otherwise wouldn't have any health care for any number of reasons, now will.
That's your spot right there - 'Obama did what a past Presidents had wished to do, and found a way to pass a health care plan that took away the ability for insurance companies to get rid of you the second you got sick. The Republicans attacked it constantly, even though 30 millon more Americans would now receive the protection they need. It took the highest court in the land to say they were wrong, and even now, they're looking for ways to let Big Insurance throw cancer patients off their coverage to pay for big CEO bonuses.'
Romney's biggest problem is that the electoral map remains heavily weighted against him. If the election was held tomorrow and all states with a greater than 5% lead went to their respective leaders, Obama would need to secure 12 out of 89 electoral votes to win. On the other hand, Romney would need to secure 79 out of 89 remaining votes to win. What that means is that Romney would need to win 5 out of 6 currently close states and could only afford to lose either Wisconsin or Iowa. Romney's only realistic hope is an issue that will shift the momentum in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, and tip his support over in Florida, Michigan, and Virginia.
Scalia wrote a dissent that was a majority opinion, and Ginsberg wrote a majority opinion that was a dissent, suggesting that Roberts hadn't entirely been open on how he'd vote.
CNN has a Dewey moment, declaring the individual mandate struck down. It takes 17 minutes to correct, which is about a week and a half in internet time. Not exacting a shining moment, and really more evidence of a pattern of decay emerging in the former apex of cable news.
While the conservatives have lost the battle, there's plenty to suggest that they've gained some ground in the war. The normally shit-weasel insane Erikson actually makes a salient point that Roberts defection retains the illusion of an impartial SCOTUS over an issue that is better fought other ways, while still limiting an precedent for expanded federal powers and reframing the mandate as a tax for the 2012 election. While he's certainly grasping at straws, he's got a point that repealing the individual mandate would ultimately do far less to drive a conservative push than, say, the overruling of attempts to limit the effects of Citizen's United. Their decision on Monday regarding the state of Montana is a far greater blow to freedom than mandatory health insurance, regardless of how you spin in.
Finally, while the GOP picked up some helpful elements here and there, the fact is that it is a win for Obama. While we're still six months out from the election, this is a clear victory, especially once the GOP and conservatives doubled down on the 'unconstitutional' argument. The next fifty million dollar wave of advertising will be split between attacking it as a job killing tax, an unconstitutional restriction of freedoms, and a socialist plot while trying to untangle Romney from his former implementation of it as Governor, confusing supporters. Meanwhile, the narrative for the Democrats is a lot simpler - millions of Americans who otherwise wouldn't have any health care for any number of reasons, now will.
That's your spot right there - 'Obama did what a past Presidents had wished to do, and found a way to pass a health care plan that took away the ability for insurance companies to get rid of you the second you got sick. The Republicans attacked it constantly, even though 30 millon more Americans would now receive the protection they need. It took the highest court in the land to say they were wrong, and even now, they're looking for ways to let Big Insurance throw cancer patients off their coverage to pay for big CEO bonuses.'
Romney's biggest problem is that the electoral map remains heavily weighted against him. If the election was held tomorrow and all states with a greater than 5% lead went to their respective leaders, Obama would need to secure 12 out of 89 electoral votes to win. On the other hand, Romney would need to secure 79 out of 89 remaining votes to win. What that means is that Romney would need to win 5 out of 6 currently close states and could only afford to lose either Wisconsin or Iowa. Romney's only realistic hope is an issue that will shift the momentum in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, and tip his support over in Florida, Michigan, and Virginia.
