![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
It's political time again. This time, we are going to take a look at the madness which is the Democratic primaries. I have two predictions in a dangerous age for pundits.
1. Howard Dean will not win the nomination. The former frontrunner, crucified by the media by his soaring stats and rogue campaign, has not only suffers from setbacks and gaffes, but has lost the inevitability his campaign once had. Howard's grassroots Internet boom is brutalized, marginalized, and facing increasing categorization as the Mecca of net wackos and political children. After all, the spin is the most important thing, and Dean committed the cardinal sin of speaking like a human being. He needs to take two or three of the next seven states solidly, and eke out some close seconds in places like Missouri to even have a hope of surviving until Michigen. If he can keep the concept of a 'race' going, staying close if a little behind Kerry, he could possibly score some big swings in California, the Southwest and the North, but he's only one nail in the coffin away from defeat as is. I'm not a big fan of a great many of Dean's policies, but I think it's as big a shame that he will miss his chance at the nomination as McCain's drubbing in 1999/2000.
2. Kerry, the Democratic candidate, will be so savaged in the election that Bush will carry both the popular vote and electoral college by at least 15%. John Kerry, the prepackaged 'real deal' of the DNC's dreams is a wooden speaker, a weak presence and above all, a political liability. This is not 1960, and he does not have a Joe Kennedy behind him orchestrating his presidential run. There will not be an elevation from the Senate to the Oval Office. Bush will go aggressive against Kerry from day one, and will spike the Democrats entire campaign by pointing out that Kerry disagreed with the UN backed first Gulf War, and supported him on the unilateral second one. Kerry has little innovation in his economic package, and simply doesn't have the face to challenge Bush. Let's face it, children, the presidential election will move at a Texas pace, and the 'civility' and 'honour' that the DNC seem to believe are the keys to Kerry's candidate will make him seem weak and indecisive against Bush and the key 'National Security' issue.
Personally, I think removing Bush was something of a log shot. The Republicans have the money, the uncontested base and the savvy to run a static but stable campaign that requires only a small swing percentage for the victory. The Democrats have badly miscalculated that a Bush-lite candidate is their best hope. Despite the crackles of the RNC chief Gillespie about facing Dean, there was a tinge of nervousness behind those words, especially since the man was targeted by them so quickly. They would have been forced into an unconventional campaign, with Bush off his scripts and facing a man who can not only match Bush's angry rhetoric, but shows no compunction going for the gut punch.
For Bush to lose he needs to get pole axed in a national debate; punch-bladed to bleed out the navel in front of the whole country as Rove weeps into his coffee. Kerry can't do that. Kerry can run a Democrat unifying 40% vote campaign, and retire from the field with honour, but he lacks the instincts, blood in the eyes anger and credibility to be able to score that hit. The DNC establishment has spoken, and resigned themselves to a bid in 2008 under Hillary Clinton.
Damn shame too. Even if the McGovern parallel held true, just the idea of Bush spending six weeks under the withering rhetoric of someone like Dean would have been worth the price.
1. Howard Dean will not win the nomination. The former frontrunner, crucified by the media by his soaring stats and rogue campaign, has not only suffers from setbacks and gaffes, but has lost the inevitability his campaign once had. Howard's grassroots Internet boom is brutalized, marginalized, and facing increasing categorization as the Mecca of net wackos and political children. After all, the spin is the most important thing, and Dean committed the cardinal sin of speaking like a human being. He needs to take two or three of the next seven states solidly, and eke out some close seconds in places like Missouri to even have a hope of surviving until Michigen. If he can keep the concept of a 'race' going, staying close if a little behind Kerry, he could possibly score some big swings in California, the Southwest and the North, but he's only one nail in the coffin away from defeat as is. I'm not a big fan of a great many of Dean's policies, but I think it's as big a shame that he will miss his chance at the nomination as McCain's drubbing in 1999/2000.
2. Kerry, the Democratic candidate, will be so savaged in the election that Bush will carry both the popular vote and electoral college by at least 15%. John Kerry, the prepackaged 'real deal' of the DNC's dreams is a wooden speaker, a weak presence and above all, a political liability. This is not 1960, and he does not have a Joe Kennedy behind him orchestrating his presidential run. There will not be an elevation from the Senate to the Oval Office. Bush will go aggressive against Kerry from day one, and will spike the Democrats entire campaign by pointing out that Kerry disagreed with the UN backed first Gulf War, and supported him on the unilateral second one. Kerry has little innovation in his economic package, and simply doesn't have the face to challenge Bush. Let's face it, children, the presidential election will move at a Texas pace, and the 'civility' and 'honour' that the DNC seem to believe are the keys to Kerry's candidate will make him seem weak and indecisive against Bush and the key 'National Security' issue.
Personally, I think removing Bush was something of a log shot. The Republicans have the money, the uncontested base and the savvy to run a static but stable campaign that requires only a small swing percentage for the victory. The Democrats have badly miscalculated that a Bush-lite candidate is their best hope. Despite the crackles of the RNC chief Gillespie about facing Dean, there was a tinge of nervousness behind those words, especially since the man was targeted by them so quickly. They would have been forced into an unconventional campaign, with Bush off his scripts and facing a man who can not only match Bush's angry rhetoric, but shows no compunction going for the gut punch.
For Bush to lose he needs to get pole axed in a national debate; punch-bladed to bleed out the navel in front of the whole country as Rove weeps into his coffee. Kerry can't do that. Kerry can run a Democrat unifying 40% vote campaign, and retire from the field with honour, but he lacks the instincts, blood in the eyes anger and credibility to be able to score that hit. The DNC establishment has spoken, and resigned themselves to a bid in 2008 under Hillary Clinton.
Damn shame too. Even if the McGovern parallel held true, just the idea of Bush spending six weeks under the withering rhetoric of someone like Dean would have been worth the price.
