Election Results
Nov. 7th, 2006 08:55 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dexfarkinBecause people have asked and I like being wrong.
House: Democratics will retake the House with a margin of 12-16 seats. There are too many competative races and I don't buy the all-power of the GOP GOTV this year. They will pick up somewhere between 25-30 seats, possibly more, and unlikely to be more than a couple less.
Senate: I see the knifefight here. The Democrats will hold NJ with Menendez, picking up RI with Whitehorse, OH with Brown, PA with Casey, MT with Tester and VA with Webb. They will finish almost statistically tied in MO, leading the next big conspiracy theory as McCaskill and Talent duke it out over the courts. The Republicans will not pick up a seat, but fend of strong challenges in TN and AR. I have a gut feel that Lamont might sneak through based on a superior GOTV effort, but if pressed, I'd say Lieberman by three points. 50-48-2 Senate for the GOP, with Lieberman as the ultimate X factor.
Bonus prediction: If the GOP holds the Senate, or the Democrats take the Senate, at least one member (or former member) of the minority party will cross the floor to sit with the majority in less than six months.
House: Democratics will retake the House with a margin of 12-16 seats. There are too many competative races and I don't buy the all-power of the GOP GOTV this year. They will pick up somewhere between 25-30 seats, possibly more, and unlikely to be more than a couple less.
Senate: I see the knifefight here. The Democrats will hold NJ with Menendez, picking up RI with Whitehorse, OH with Brown, PA with Casey, MT with Tester and VA with Webb. They will finish almost statistically tied in MO, leading the next big conspiracy theory as McCaskill and Talent duke it out over the courts. The Republicans will not pick up a seat, but fend of strong challenges in TN and AR. I have a gut feel that Lamont might sneak through based on a superior GOTV effort, but if pressed, I'd say Lieberman by three points. 50-48-2 Senate for the GOP, with Lieberman as the ultimate X factor.
Bonus prediction: If the GOP holds the Senate, or the Democrats take the Senate, at least one member (or former member) of the minority party will cross the floor to sit with the majority in less than six months.
