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dexfarkinWatch, as I garble about the political future.
A wise man will tell you that no one can every truly tell the future. A truly wide man will tell you that trying to foretell the future automatically alters it for you. But neither of them is as good as the guy sitting in the back of the pub, two pints over the limit, who not only knows the future, but will tell everyone about it. At length. And volume. For forty-five minutes.
Well, I don’t know how wise I am, but I do have enough for a couple of pints in my wallet.
So, with 8 days left in the election, and barring the sudden spear-tackling of Osama Bin Liden by Bush and Chaney at one of their rallies, I’m going to tell you exactly what’s going to happen. I’ll even throw in the senate too.
Before I do though, for anyone still on the fence, I urge you to consider a more Canadian method of scrutinizing your candidates: don’t vote for the President. Vote for his administration. Whether you think Bush is a saint or a devil, consider his vastly inept, incompetent and irrational administration. When not skewing intelligence reports, leaking the names of high-level operatives, mismanaging both the preparation and continuation of a major ground war, subverting intelligence assets, undercutting oversight agencies and flat out stonewalling the checks and balances of the American political system for partisan gain, they are telling you in loud voices that everything is fine and all about freedom. Even if you hate Kerry, consider who he’ll bring on board and who will be advising him.
All that being said, time for me to don my fortune teller hat and make my predictions.
Kerry: 284 Bush: 253
Kerry will win the swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, but lose Florida. The fix is in with Florida from the GOP, and Bush will win that state in a closely contested battle. Law suits will immediately be launched there and in Ohio, which Kerry will win in an equally close battle. Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa and Arkansas all show the highest potential for ‘swings’ in the final hours of the battle. I think that Kerry will pick up Colorado and Iowa, with Wisconsin going to Bush. My gut feel is Arkansas will break towards Kerry as well, with their beloved son Bill stumping the state this week.
Possible changes? Either Virginia or West Virginia could go Democrat, while Minnesota and Hawaii could switch Republican. I doubt it though. Whoever takes two of three between Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will take the White House.
One elector from West Virginia will not give his electoral vote to Bush win he wins the state. It will only be persecuted if Bush loses office.
Kerry is going to win the popular vote by about double Gore’s total; at least a million more votes for President. However, it only underlines the power of the Electoral College. Historically, independents break 2:1 for the challenger and Kerry has a strong ‘silent’ demographic of younger wired voters who will create that change. The important thing is if they are in the battleground states, and not all in New York and California.
As for the tempestuous Senate, things are even more interesting there. There are 34 senate seat races right now, out of the hundred person body. Of that, 19 are Democrat and 15 are held by the Republican party. The current Senate breakdown is 51 Republican and 48 Democrat, with 1 Independent who traditionally caucuses with the Democrats. There are also five retiring Democrat Senators in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. In contrast, only three Republicans are retiring, in Colorado, Illinois, and Oklahoma.
Even though straight stats favour the Republicans, politics is an on the street and blood in the mud world. Probably the Democrats will pick up Illinois but lose Georgia and South Carolina. Assuming they hold South Dakota and Nevada and the Republicans hold Missouri and Pennsylvania, the Senate will be 45 Democrats (including Jeffords) and 48 Republicans. The states to watch are Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Oklahoma.
Tony Knowles is savaging the nepotistic Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. Knowles, an extremely popular former two term governor is running a true to form grinding campaign, and even though he only leads by 4%, momentum is will on his side.
Ken Salazar and Peter Coors keep trading the race back and forth. Mind you, Salazar his held the lead or been tied far more than Coors has edged ahead, and the beer giant has committed a couple of grafts which are enough to stumble him in the cities. I think Salazer’s current 7% advantage is indicative of the final numbers.
Louisiana is a weird case. How is goes is that people run as non-partisan, with run-offs until one candidate gets 50% of the vote. David Vitter, a Republican is currently leading, but well short of the 50%. Two Democrats, Chris John and John Kennedy are splitting 45% between them, and as the run-offs hit and one of the two falls away, the other can expect to pick up the bulk of the votes. I say it will come down to Chris John beating Vitter with a strong 8% or better finish.
North Carolina sees Erskine Bowles against Richard Burr. Burr’s been dogged by scandals through his campaign, and only Bowles lackluster responses and poorly organized campaign has kept him in the game. Bowles should carry it, on the coattails of Edwards at the very least. But it’s not going to be a comfortable seat, and my guess is it will be a weak point for RNC attention in 2010.
Oklahoma politics is like Texas politics, except with less money and hookers. This should have been a walk in the park for Republican Tom Coburn to replace Nickles for the seat. However, the state Republican primaries were particularly brutal, with lots of allegations of illegal land deals tied to Coburn. He also has a habit of shooting himself in the foot after he’s stuffed it into his mouth, which is why the solidly Republican state has given the lead to Brad Carson, the Democrat. Even with Coburn’s antics, I feel he’ll still squeak out a victory, but like North Carolina for the Republicans, Oklahoma will be in the Democrats crosshairs in 2010.
Bob Graham, the vastly popular Florida Senator is retiring, and that is a blow to the Democrats. Mel Martinez came out with a massive warchest and huge help from the Governor, Jeb Bush for the seat. But Betty Castor, an unlikely candidate managed to snag the Democrat nomination, and has solidly controlled the field against her better heeled opponent. Martinez finds himself justifying more than committing, allowing Castor to steal the momentum on the campaign. His grass roots organization and well seasoned team will likely carry the seat against the GOP, but it will be a tight race.
Kentucky should have been an easy second term for Jim Bunning, a popular former All-Star pitcher and Republican in a solidly red state. But his increasingly erratic and downright eccentric behaviour of the last six weeks has taken a 22 point lead and turned it into a dead heat. Comments like his opponent, Daniel Mongiardo looks like Saddam’s son, that Mongiardo’s men tried to accost and beat up his wife, his tripling of his security because ‘al-Quida’ was after him, and his use of a teleprompter in a wholly bizarre debate has turned this into not a race but a route. Mongiardo, a lawyer with impressive credentials for helping disadvantaged people in the poorest areas of Kentucky, is popular, has gained the high ground, and has been intelligently turning each Bunning error (like an ad showing Mongiardo’s massive house and boat as a sign that he’s just a rich lawyer turning out to have used picture that in fact were NOT Mongriardo’s home or boat) into percentage point. The red state is going to elect a blue senator.
The Democrats will lose South Carolina, despite an excellently fought campaign by Inez Tenenbaum, but they will hold South Dakota and their house leader, Tom Daschle. Illinois will fall to the unstoppable Obama, and Georgia will go redder with the retirement of formerly sane Dixiecrat Zell Miller and the election of Isakson.
So, the senate will be 50 Democrat, 49 Republican, and 1 Independent. Should Kerry win, his Senate seat will come up for election in Jan, which could alter the balance, although considering that the Vice President casts the deciding vote, it will not mean good things for the Republicans. Should Bush win, expect a few of those close votes, like say North Carolina and Kentucky to go red, leaving the Republicans with a narrow control of the Senate.
However, the House of Representatives, of which the Republican hold a 16 seat majority will remain red. In fact, the Republicans will likely extend that lead to 20 seats, and will use that base to rebuild in the event of a Kerry win.
And that, as they see, is what the pig entrails and tarot cards tell me. I’ll post again on Nov.3rd, so you can all laugh at how wrong I really was.
A wise man will tell you that no one can every truly tell the future. A truly wide man will tell you that trying to foretell the future automatically alters it for you. But neither of them is as good as the guy sitting in the back of the pub, two pints over the limit, who not only knows the future, but will tell everyone about it. At length. And volume. For forty-five minutes.
Well, I don’t know how wise I am, but I do have enough for a couple of pints in my wallet.
So, with 8 days left in the election, and barring the sudden spear-tackling of Osama Bin Liden by Bush and Chaney at one of their rallies, I’m going to tell you exactly what’s going to happen. I’ll even throw in the senate too.
Before I do though, for anyone still on the fence, I urge you to consider a more Canadian method of scrutinizing your candidates: don’t vote for the President. Vote for his administration. Whether you think Bush is a saint or a devil, consider his vastly inept, incompetent and irrational administration. When not skewing intelligence reports, leaking the names of high-level operatives, mismanaging both the preparation and continuation of a major ground war, subverting intelligence assets, undercutting oversight agencies and flat out stonewalling the checks and balances of the American political system for partisan gain, they are telling you in loud voices that everything is fine and all about freedom. Even if you hate Kerry, consider who he’ll bring on board and who will be advising him.
All that being said, time for me to don my fortune teller hat and make my predictions.
Kerry: 284 Bush: 253
Kerry will win the swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, but lose Florida. The fix is in with Florida from the GOP, and Bush will win that state in a closely contested battle. Law suits will immediately be launched there and in Ohio, which Kerry will win in an equally close battle. Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa and Arkansas all show the highest potential for ‘swings’ in the final hours of the battle. I think that Kerry will pick up Colorado and Iowa, with Wisconsin going to Bush. My gut feel is Arkansas will break towards Kerry as well, with their beloved son Bill stumping the state this week.
Possible changes? Either Virginia or West Virginia could go Democrat, while Minnesota and Hawaii could switch Republican. I doubt it though. Whoever takes two of three between Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will take the White House.
One elector from West Virginia will not give his electoral vote to Bush win he wins the state. It will only be persecuted if Bush loses office.
Kerry is going to win the popular vote by about double Gore’s total; at least a million more votes for President. However, it only underlines the power of the Electoral College. Historically, independents break 2:1 for the challenger and Kerry has a strong ‘silent’ demographic of younger wired voters who will create that change. The important thing is if they are in the battleground states, and not all in New York and California.
As for the tempestuous Senate, things are even more interesting there. There are 34 senate seat races right now, out of the hundred person body. Of that, 19 are Democrat and 15 are held by the Republican party. The current Senate breakdown is 51 Republican and 48 Democrat, with 1 Independent who traditionally caucuses with the Democrats. There are also five retiring Democrat Senators in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. In contrast, only three Republicans are retiring, in Colorado, Illinois, and Oklahoma.
Even though straight stats favour the Republicans, politics is an on the street and blood in the mud world. Probably the Democrats will pick up Illinois but lose Georgia and South Carolina. Assuming they hold South Dakota and Nevada and the Republicans hold Missouri and Pennsylvania, the Senate will be 45 Democrats (including Jeffords) and 48 Republicans. The states to watch are Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Oklahoma.
Tony Knowles is savaging the nepotistic Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. Knowles, an extremely popular former two term governor is running a true to form grinding campaign, and even though he only leads by 4%, momentum is will on his side.
Ken Salazar and Peter Coors keep trading the race back and forth. Mind you, Salazar his held the lead or been tied far more than Coors has edged ahead, and the beer giant has committed a couple of grafts which are enough to stumble him in the cities. I think Salazer’s current 7% advantage is indicative of the final numbers.
Louisiana is a weird case. How is goes is that people run as non-partisan, with run-offs until one candidate gets 50% of the vote. David Vitter, a Republican is currently leading, but well short of the 50%. Two Democrats, Chris John and John Kennedy are splitting 45% between them, and as the run-offs hit and one of the two falls away, the other can expect to pick up the bulk of the votes. I say it will come down to Chris John beating Vitter with a strong 8% or better finish.
North Carolina sees Erskine Bowles against Richard Burr. Burr’s been dogged by scandals through his campaign, and only Bowles lackluster responses and poorly organized campaign has kept him in the game. Bowles should carry it, on the coattails of Edwards at the very least. But it’s not going to be a comfortable seat, and my guess is it will be a weak point for RNC attention in 2010.
Oklahoma politics is like Texas politics, except with less money and hookers. This should have been a walk in the park for Republican Tom Coburn to replace Nickles for the seat. However, the state Republican primaries were particularly brutal, with lots of allegations of illegal land deals tied to Coburn. He also has a habit of shooting himself in the foot after he’s stuffed it into his mouth, which is why the solidly Republican state has given the lead to Brad Carson, the Democrat. Even with Coburn’s antics, I feel he’ll still squeak out a victory, but like North Carolina for the Republicans, Oklahoma will be in the Democrats crosshairs in 2010.
Bob Graham, the vastly popular Florida Senator is retiring, and that is a blow to the Democrats. Mel Martinez came out with a massive warchest and huge help from the Governor, Jeb Bush for the seat. But Betty Castor, an unlikely candidate managed to snag the Democrat nomination, and has solidly controlled the field against her better heeled opponent. Martinez finds himself justifying more than committing, allowing Castor to steal the momentum on the campaign. His grass roots organization and well seasoned team will likely carry the seat against the GOP, but it will be a tight race.
Kentucky should have been an easy second term for Jim Bunning, a popular former All-Star pitcher and Republican in a solidly red state. But his increasingly erratic and downright eccentric behaviour of the last six weeks has taken a 22 point lead and turned it into a dead heat. Comments like his opponent, Daniel Mongiardo looks like Saddam’s son, that Mongiardo’s men tried to accost and beat up his wife, his tripling of his security because ‘al-Quida’ was after him, and his use of a teleprompter in a wholly bizarre debate has turned this into not a race but a route. Mongiardo, a lawyer with impressive credentials for helping disadvantaged people in the poorest areas of Kentucky, is popular, has gained the high ground, and has been intelligently turning each Bunning error (like an ad showing Mongiardo’s massive house and boat as a sign that he’s just a rich lawyer turning out to have used picture that in fact were NOT Mongriardo’s home or boat) into percentage point. The red state is going to elect a blue senator.
The Democrats will lose South Carolina, despite an excellently fought campaign by Inez Tenenbaum, but they will hold South Dakota and their house leader, Tom Daschle. Illinois will fall to the unstoppable Obama, and Georgia will go redder with the retirement of formerly sane Dixiecrat Zell Miller and the election of Isakson.
So, the senate will be 50 Democrat, 49 Republican, and 1 Independent. Should Kerry win, his Senate seat will come up for election in Jan, which could alter the balance, although considering that the Vice President casts the deciding vote, it will not mean good things for the Republicans. Should Bush win, expect a few of those close votes, like say North Carolina and Kentucky to go red, leaving the Republicans with a narrow control of the Senate.
However, the House of Representatives, of which the Republican hold a 16 seat majority will remain red. In fact, the Republicans will likely extend that lead to 20 seats, and will use that base to rebuild in the event of a Kerry win.
And that, as they see, is what the pig entrails and tarot cards tell me. I’ll post again on Nov.3rd, so you can all laugh at how wrong I really was.
