It's possible but unlikely. Barring a scandal or a collapse, the Republicans face two massive hurdles in the minority vote and the Electoral College. Democrats will likely take in the neighbourhood of 80%+ of the Black vote and 65%+ of the Hispanic vote. Those are massive pools of voters which the GOP is ceding to them with their xenophobia and poorly disguised racism.
The Electoral College, which actually elects the President, is a little trickier. The GOP would need to hold all of their wins from 2012 plus win at a minimum three out of four of Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, as well as pick up something in the Midwest, like Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico or Colorado. Do do that, they'd need to outperform 2012 by 3-7%, which is a massive shift.
So at this moment, the GOP is a long shot at best. But a lot can happen in a year, especially once a candidate is finally settled on.
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Date: 2015-10-27 04:56 pm (UTC)The Electoral College, which actually elects the President, is a little trickier. The GOP would need to hold all of their wins from 2012 plus win at a minimum three out of four of Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, as well as pick up something in the Midwest, like Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico or Colorado. Do do that, they'd need to outperform 2012 by 3-7%, which is a massive shift.
So at this moment, the GOP is a long shot at best. But a lot can happen in a year, especially once a candidate is finally settled on.