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Senate Races 2012
Sep. 5th, 2012 08:00 pmSo, turning away from the Presidential election for a moment due to widening leads in Ohio and a third party candidate to the right of the GOP in Virginia, there's nothing to suggest that the race has tightened much thanks to any RNC bounce. Let's take a look at the Senate, shall we?
There's some interesting races going on. Bob Corker, the bland incumbent from Tennessee is being seriously challenged out of the blue by Mark Clayton. It's unlikely that Corker is unseated, but the race is far closer than it has any reason to be, and at worst, it's going to drain resources in other areas.
Virginia, Connecticut and Arizona are basically statistical ties, with two of the three being former Democrat seats. I expect Murphy to outpace McMahon in CT. She's come out of the nominations a lot stronger than expected and is spending a ton of cash on media buys. But she's got a habit of diving into the crazy, and there's still two months of campaigning plus the DNC to contend with. I'd say the Democrats hold this seat.
Virginia is a real question. Allen and Kaine are heavyweights and the state is pretty purple. I expect it to remain close right to the end, unless another 'macaca' moment slips in. I'd say Kaine has the slight advantage here; more recent wins, better GOTV, but it will be district by district and voter turnout that decides this.
Arizona intrigues me. Jeff Flake has been a mainstay in Arizona politics for over ten years. He's got a lot of appeal for conservatives, a big source of his support has been from Hispanic voters for his reasonable approach to immigration reform. But the GOP has really turned around for harsher immigration practices, pushing away Hispanic voters. His challenger, Richard Carmona is a decorated Vietnam veteran, a former Special forces medic who became a notable physican and later served the Bush Administration as Attorney General. His resume and his background could heavily addle Flake's core support. I'd say Flake has the advantage, but this has the potential to go every which way.
Now the pipe dreams. Nevada, while narrowing, is going to stay GOP, and Montana will revert back as well. Nevada is trending purple, but not fast enough for Berkley to edge Heller unless there's an upset. In Montana, Rehberg is an institution, and has his GOTV down to a science. It's unlikely that Tester survives November. I'd say both North Dakota and Wisconsin are losses. Heitkamp and Baldwin are well liked for their chances online, but I don't even think either of them get within five percent. Rick Berg and Tommy Thompson have too much experience and clout in their states to lose. For the GOP, Ohio isn't turning red, nor is New Mexico. There's been a lot of money sunk, with little results. And yes, that applies to Florida too.
Interesting to me are Indiana and Massachusetts. MA should have been a solid pickup, but in enlisting Elizabeth Warren, they are running a neophyte challenger and one that is a lightning rod for secret money from the financial sector against her. Brown is not a particularly good candidate or campaigner, but he's got a solid team in place and has managed to hold on to his cover as being a moderate. I think this race is going to tighten, especially following the DNC, but it is going to be very close and very expensive. I'd give Brown the advantage, but it's a seat the Democrats have to recover for any hope of keeping the Senate.
Indiana ejected long time Senator Dick Lugar in favour of Tea Party hero Richard Mourdock, who famously opined that 'bi-partisanship is when Democrats agree to support Republican positions'. He's arrogant and beholden to the far right of his base, and Indiana went blue in the presidential election in 2008. If Donnally can keep Mourdock in a position where he can't track back towards the middle, he could upset here. It's unlikely, but possible.
I think the final numbers should be about 51-48 in favour of the GOP, with King as a Democratic leaning Independent in Maine. To hold the Senate, the Democrats need to either get a bounce right down the ticket from the DNC, or have another Todd Akin fall into their lap. The GOP needs to play smart defense and keep their more extreme members from getting exposed between now and Nov.
Oh, and yes, if Akin is on the ballot by November, Missouri and McCaskill will stay Democrat.
There's some interesting races going on. Bob Corker, the bland incumbent from Tennessee is being seriously challenged out of the blue by Mark Clayton. It's unlikely that Corker is unseated, but the race is far closer than it has any reason to be, and at worst, it's going to drain resources in other areas.
Virginia, Connecticut and Arizona are basically statistical ties, with two of the three being former Democrat seats. I expect Murphy to outpace McMahon in CT. She's come out of the nominations a lot stronger than expected and is spending a ton of cash on media buys. But she's got a habit of diving into the crazy, and there's still two months of campaigning plus the DNC to contend with. I'd say the Democrats hold this seat.
Virginia is a real question. Allen and Kaine are heavyweights and the state is pretty purple. I expect it to remain close right to the end, unless another 'macaca' moment slips in. I'd say Kaine has the slight advantage here; more recent wins, better GOTV, but it will be district by district and voter turnout that decides this.
Arizona intrigues me. Jeff Flake has been a mainstay in Arizona politics for over ten years. He's got a lot of appeal for conservatives, a big source of his support has been from Hispanic voters for his reasonable approach to immigration reform. But the GOP has really turned around for harsher immigration practices, pushing away Hispanic voters. His challenger, Richard Carmona is a decorated Vietnam veteran, a former Special forces medic who became a notable physican and later served the Bush Administration as Attorney General. His resume and his background could heavily addle Flake's core support. I'd say Flake has the advantage, but this has the potential to go every which way.
Now the pipe dreams. Nevada, while narrowing, is going to stay GOP, and Montana will revert back as well. Nevada is trending purple, but not fast enough for Berkley to edge Heller unless there's an upset. In Montana, Rehberg is an institution, and has his GOTV down to a science. It's unlikely that Tester survives November. I'd say both North Dakota and Wisconsin are losses. Heitkamp and Baldwin are well liked for their chances online, but I don't even think either of them get within five percent. Rick Berg and Tommy Thompson have too much experience and clout in their states to lose. For the GOP, Ohio isn't turning red, nor is New Mexico. There's been a lot of money sunk, with little results. And yes, that applies to Florida too.
Interesting to me are Indiana and Massachusetts. MA should have been a solid pickup, but in enlisting Elizabeth Warren, they are running a neophyte challenger and one that is a lightning rod for secret money from the financial sector against her. Brown is not a particularly good candidate or campaigner, but he's got a solid team in place and has managed to hold on to his cover as being a moderate. I think this race is going to tighten, especially following the DNC, but it is going to be very close and very expensive. I'd give Brown the advantage, but it's a seat the Democrats have to recover for any hope of keeping the Senate.
Indiana ejected long time Senator Dick Lugar in favour of Tea Party hero Richard Mourdock, who famously opined that 'bi-partisanship is when Democrats agree to support Republican positions'. He's arrogant and beholden to the far right of his base, and Indiana went blue in the presidential election in 2008. If Donnally can keep Mourdock in a position where he can't track back towards the middle, he could upset here. It's unlikely, but possible.
I think the final numbers should be about 51-48 in favour of the GOP, with King as a Democratic leaning Independent in Maine. To hold the Senate, the Democrats need to either get a bounce right down the ticket from the DNC, or have another Todd Akin fall into their lap. The GOP needs to play smart defense and keep their more extreme members from getting exposed between now and Nov.
Oh, and yes, if Akin is on the ballot by November, Missouri and McCaskill will stay Democrat.
