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Kittens MacTavish
Aug. 10th, 2012 11:41 amRomney's campaign is, to put it charitably, floundering somewhat. And by floundering I mean tanking badly in the dog days of summer. As most people will tell you, it's still early - 90 days out from the election and after the convention, Romney will be able to unleash the destructive power of a fully operational GOP campaign. But even so, that is a campaign that should be extremely worried about their position right now.
Again, the parallels to 2004 are written all over this race. When Kerry was threatening in the polls, Bush's campaign team - with the help of outside parties - managed to flip the narrative and make the election about John Kerry, which is exactly the last thing that the Democrats wanted to do. The longer the election was focused on President Bush and his foibles, the more the negative opinion ratings and political miscues would sink the incumbent. But by switching the tables on Kerry, it became a referendum about a ridiculously boring personality who had a long enough Senate career to easily pick apart and throw meaningless but attention grabbing sound bites out around. Having to run on his record instead of against the President's robbed Kerry of the momentum he needed and cost him the election.
Mitt Romney has the same problem. This election was supposed to be about the weak US economy and pinning it directly on President Obama's policies. Romney's history as a successful businessman was supposed to underline how his stewardship had to be better than the ailing economy presided over by a former community organizer. This hasn't been the case.
By relentlessly going after Romney's tenure at Bain Capital, the Democrats have turned this election cycle into one dominated on judging the challenger, which is always a negative position when running against an incumbent. Romney's own gaffes and awkwardness have made it child's play to paint him as a cartoon tycoon from the 19th century, complete with monocle, top hat and cigar, lighting the latter with a burning poor child. It's not entirely unfair either. Anyone who knows me know that I find corporations like Bain to actually be anti-capitalistic and anti-free market; the vulture capitalism of financial merger and acquisition is a rigged game that in the long term weakens the productive capacity of a nation in favour of gobs of unethical cash. Agree or not, Romney made a literal barrel full of money with Bain to finance his political aspirations.
His campaign has also given the Democrats the gift of his tax returns. I am baffled that seasoned political operatives didn't see this as a poison pill from day one. It has become custom for Presidential candidates to release a significant period of returns during the campaign. Hell, it's become common to see it at lower levels in the House and Senate races as well. Whether you agree with it or not, once something becomes the expected, it is almost mandatory. On top of that, you have a candidate who is worth more than any candidate in history running for President, whose wealth was generated in the arcane corners of financial investment. To refuse to release them, regardless of the contents, is a fatal flaw.
Let me re-iterate. If Mitt Romney does not release his tax returns, he has zero chance of winning the election. The Democrats will beat his campaign to death with them, suggesting all manner of financial chicanery is hidden in them. It doesn't matter whether they're right or wrong. In a Presidential run, transparency (or at least the illusion of it) is a fundamental demand of the media and the voters. And before anyone suggests this is unfair and out of bounds, let's remember that it was demanded of the current sitting President that he release his bloody birth certificate as proof of citizenship, and even now, they're harping on his college transcripts being sealed. Both parties have decided that there is no right to privacy for a Presidential candidate any longer - don't like it, don't run for the office.
My personal guess that is Romney's tax returns will show creative but legal accounting that resulted in him paying a low amount of taxes. Romney is a highly intelligent money manager with the resources to hire the best to maximize his deductions and limit his tax liabilities. It's a story that would have hurt him a couple of months ago. It would have stalled his traction in the primaries and likely forced a much closer contest. But it will fucking kill his campaign now. Harry Reid made sure of that with his anonymous source just as the Olympics were pushing the debate off the front page.
This is why this is such a massive fuck up for the GOP, and Romney's entire campaign staff should have been fired for leaving such a huge target up this deep in the cycle. Romney really has only one way he can win - release his taxes which should he not only obeyed the letter of the law in terms of his taxes, but also the spirit of the law and didn't take every last loophole to pay a ridiculously low amount. Since I'm relatively sure that Romney's taxes will not reflect that, as he would have already released them if they did, he is left with choosing which option he thinks hurts him least.
If he releases his taxes and they show what I expect they will, there will be a thousand ads about Romney playing a lower percentage than his secretary and the attacks on him as a greedy plutocrat who is only interested in making the rich richer will roll for the next three months. Economic populism is about the only safe arrow in Obama's quiver and Romney has gone so far as to put an apple on his own head for the opposition.
If he doesn't release his taxes, he'll be hammered by liberals and conservatives alike for his secretive nature. It will be effortlessly easy to paint him as a sinister figure; a wealthy kleptomaniac who may have made his money in illegal ways while firing Americans in order to send their jobs to Mexico and China. That will end him in the Rust Belt; a region that if he can't force at the very least a split with Obama, he can't possibly win the election. Once again, there's where Reid's shaft right into his political testicles has crippled him. Reid can spin his source for weeks, teasing out little details at a snail's pace to flesh out his source until finally revealing him. Even if it flames out and Romney can destroy Reid's credibility, it doesn't bolster Romney's campaign against the President much.
Once you get into the polling for the battleground states, it looks even worse for Romney. As I mentioned in a previous post, Romney needs to sweep most of the close states to have a chance. However, in terms of the big three - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida - Romney needs to take two of three to become President. If Obama takes two of those states, he's still President. Right now, the only one he's even close in is Florida, and the trend lines are all going in the opposite direction for the campaign.
The only way out I see for Romney, other than the desperate hope that a major scandal erupts on the Democratic side, is to release his tax returns and dummy up between now and the convention. The VP choice will dilute the news cycle somewhat, and the spectacle of the RNC Convention will provide at least a bump. Those two things might buy enough time to take the worst of the sting out of whatever is in the returns, just in time for a major ad blitz to hammer on the economy over and over. Otherwise, the GOP might as well dump Romney and nominate Ron Paul and Sarah Palin for their ticket at the convention, because they will have no chance of winning in November.
Again, the parallels to 2004 are written all over this race. When Kerry was threatening in the polls, Bush's campaign team - with the help of outside parties - managed to flip the narrative and make the election about John Kerry, which is exactly the last thing that the Democrats wanted to do. The longer the election was focused on President Bush and his foibles, the more the negative opinion ratings and political miscues would sink the incumbent. But by switching the tables on Kerry, it became a referendum about a ridiculously boring personality who had a long enough Senate career to easily pick apart and throw meaningless but attention grabbing sound bites out around. Having to run on his record instead of against the President's robbed Kerry of the momentum he needed and cost him the election.
Mitt Romney has the same problem. This election was supposed to be about the weak US economy and pinning it directly on President Obama's policies. Romney's history as a successful businessman was supposed to underline how his stewardship had to be better than the ailing economy presided over by a former community organizer. This hasn't been the case.
By relentlessly going after Romney's tenure at Bain Capital, the Democrats have turned this election cycle into one dominated on judging the challenger, which is always a negative position when running against an incumbent. Romney's own gaffes and awkwardness have made it child's play to paint him as a cartoon tycoon from the 19th century, complete with monocle, top hat and cigar, lighting the latter with a burning poor child. It's not entirely unfair either. Anyone who knows me know that I find corporations like Bain to actually be anti-capitalistic and anti-free market; the vulture capitalism of financial merger and acquisition is a rigged game that in the long term weakens the productive capacity of a nation in favour of gobs of unethical cash. Agree or not, Romney made a literal barrel full of money with Bain to finance his political aspirations.
His campaign has also given the Democrats the gift of his tax returns. I am baffled that seasoned political operatives didn't see this as a poison pill from day one. It has become custom for Presidential candidates to release a significant period of returns during the campaign. Hell, it's become common to see it at lower levels in the House and Senate races as well. Whether you agree with it or not, once something becomes the expected, it is almost mandatory. On top of that, you have a candidate who is worth more than any candidate in history running for President, whose wealth was generated in the arcane corners of financial investment. To refuse to release them, regardless of the contents, is a fatal flaw.
Let me re-iterate. If Mitt Romney does not release his tax returns, he has zero chance of winning the election. The Democrats will beat his campaign to death with them, suggesting all manner of financial chicanery is hidden in them. It doesn't matter whether they're right or wrong. In a Presidential run, transparency (or at least the illusion of it) is a fundamental demand of the media and the voters. And before anyone suggests this is unfair and out of bounds, let's remember that it was demanded of the current sitting President that he release his bloody birth certificate as proof of citizenship, and even now, they're harping on his college transcripts being sealed. Both parties have decided that there is no right to privacy for a Presidential candidate any longer - don't like it, don't run for the office.
My personal guess that is Romney's tax returns will show creative but legal accounting that resulted in him paying a low amount of taxes. Romney is a highly intelligent money manager with the resources to hire the best to maximize his deductions and limit his tax liabilities. It's a story that would have hurt him a couple of months ago. It would have stalled his traction in the primaries and likely forced a much closer contest. But it will fucking kill his campaign now. Harry Reid made sure of that with his anonymous source just as the Olympics were pushing the debate off the front page.
This is why this is such a massive fuck up for the GOP, and Romney's entire campaign staff should have been fired for leaving such a huge target up this deep in the cycle. Romney really has only one way he can win - release his taxes which should he not only obeyed the letter of the law in terms of his taxes, but also the spirit of the law and didn't take every last loophole to pay a ridiculously low amount. Since I'm relatively sure that Romney's taxes will not reflect that, as he would have already released them if they did, he is left with choosing which option he thinks hurts him least.
If he releases his taxes and they show what I expect they will, there will be a thousand ads about Romney playing a lower percentage than his secretary and the attacks on him as a greedy plutocrat who is only interested in making the rich richer will roll for the next three months. Economic populism is about the only safe arrow in Obama's quiver and Romney has gone so far as to put an apple on his own head for the opposition.
If he doesn't release his taxes, he'll be hammered by liberals and conservatives alike for his secretive nature. It will be effortlessly easy to paint him as a sinister figure; a wealthy kleptomaniac who may have made his money in illegal ways while firing Americans in order to send their jobs to Mexico and China. That will end him in the Rust Belt; a region that if he can't force at the very least a split with Obama, he can't possibly win the election. Once again, there's where Reid's shaft right into his political testicles has crippled him. Reid can spin his source for weeks, teasing out little details at a snail's pace to flesh out his source until finally revealing him. Even if it flames out and Romney can destroy Reid's credibility, it doesn't bolster Romney's campaign against the President much.
Once you get into the polling for the battleground states, it looks even worse for Romney. As I mentioned in a previous post, Romney needs to sweep most of the close states to have a chance. However, in terms of the big three - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida - Romney needs to take two of three to become President. If Obama takes two of those states, he's still President. Right now, the only one he's even close in is Florida, and the trend lines are all going in the opposite direction for the campaign.
The only way out I see for Romney, other than the desperate hope that a major scandal erupts on the Democratic side, is to release his tax returns and dummy up between now and the convention. The VP choice will dilute the news cycle somewhat, and the spectacle of the RNC Convention will provide at least a bump. Those two things might buy enough time to take the worst of the sting out of whatever is in the returns, just in time for a major ad blitz to hammer on the economy over and over. Otherwise, the GOP might as well dump Romney and nominate Ron Paul and Sarah Palin for their ticket at the convention, because they will have no chance of winning in November.
