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Secretive Mittens
Jul. 12th, 2012 03:23 pmThere's a lot of poll movement going on in the upcoming US Presidential election right now that is turning into a very interesting parallel to the 2004 election. I've spoken about this during the primaries, when the Democrats were in the position of having a vulnerable sitting President to run against, and during the primaries, rolled out such a bizarre collection of clearly unsuitable candidates that the only real choice was the boring, ultra-establishment pick which enthused no one.
Predictably, through a combination of media assisted smear campaigns, escalating image and messaging gaffes on the trail, and an incumbent who's strength has always been motivating his base, Kerry couldn't get the traction he needed to shift Florida or Ohio, which would decide the election.
So far, 2012 is following the same path. A primary so chock full o' nuts that the only real choice was a dull candidate that excited no one for the GOP, and so far against a vulnerable President Obama, the inability to focus what should be his strengths against the weakness of his opponent. Kerry will be remembered for being 'Swift Boated', where through a campaign of lies that he and the Democrats ineffectively address until the narrative had been settled against him, made his decorated military service a negative against Bush's own dubious National Guard tour.
Romney, who's entire platform in the primaries was based on the image of the hercularian business genius; the kind of entrepreneur-capitalist that makes up the heroic for the American business culture. Instead, the Democrats have effectively turned Bain into a lead weight around his neck, tracking the company's efforts to ship jobs overseas, break up American own companies and selling profitable components to multi-national corporations, and hiding the profits in off-shore accounts to avoid paying taxes. Instead of Henry Reardon, Romney comes off as a modern day vulture capitalist, living off the money he can squeeze out of profitable businesses before dumping them for his next one. You can almost see him as a part in Wall Street, advising Gordon Gecko that the pension fund is primed to be skimmed out from under the workers.
Now, in the general scale of the election, it mars his image but it's not a knock out blow. But as I've mentioned before, Romney's real challenge isn't in the general polling, where he's fairly close to Obama or ahead, but it's in the Electoral College, where he is at a distinct disadvantage. To beat Obama, Romney needs to convert most of the currently close races to him, and absolutely cannot afford to allow Obama to win any of the major battleground states. The challenge is that three of those states - Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio - are states which have been suffering for thirty years of jobs flowing out of the state to countries that can exploit cheaper labour. So Bain's record of out-sourcing American jobs to other countries is keenly felt.
On top of that, his less than transparent approach to his earnings and his off-shore accounts are feeding into the narrative like a perfectly designed loop; if Romney wasn't selling off American jobs to the highest bidder in order to pocket the profits and park them into dubious accounts in the Caymans and Switzerland, why won't he release his tax returns?'. The more Romney's camp doubles down on how the accusations are lies and more of 'politics as usual', the more that quest gets underlined. If Romney is legit, why is he hiding his wealth as strenuously as possible?
The most recent ad blitz is showing some very strong numbers trending independents away from Romney in all three states, and increasing Democrat engagement. While the polls are still fluid, the trending is unmistakable, If Romney loses both Ohio and Pennsylvania, it is almost impossible for him to defeat Obama. Unless he can find a way to effectively counter the Bain narrative, it really doesn't matter what points he scores on 'Obamacare' since it's not dominating the narrative in the states he has to win.
Much like when Kerry kept pivoting to try and nuance his position regarding Iraq, unless you can clearly message into the battleground states that shifts the momentum towards you with their key issues, it doesn't matter how happy you end up making your base. You'll still lose in the end.
Predictably, through a combination of media assisted smear campaigns, escalating image and messaging gaffes on the trail, and an incumbent who's strength has always been motivating his base, Kerry couldn't get the traction he needed to shift Florida or Ohio, which would decide the election.
So far, 2012 is following the same path. A primary so chock full o' nuts that the only real choice was a dull candidate that excited no one for the GOP, and so far against a vulnerable President Obama, the inability to focus what should be his strengths against the weakness of his opponent. Kerry will be remembered for being 'Swift Boated', where through a campaign of lies that he and the Democrats ineffectively address until the narrative had been settled against him, made his decorated military service a negative against Bush's own dubious National Guard tour.
Romney, who's entire platform in the primaries was based on the image of the hercularian business genius; the kind of entrepreneur-capitalist that makes up the heroic for the American business culture. Instead, the Democrats have effectively turned Bain into a lead weight around his neck, tracking the company's efforts to ship jobs overseas, break up American own companies and selling profitable components to multi-national corporations, and hiding the profits in off-shore accounts to avoid paying taxes. Instead of Henry Reardon, Romney comes off as a modern day vulture capitalist, living off the money he can squeeze out of profitable businesses before dumping them for his next one. You can almost see him as a part in Wall Street, advising Gordon Gecko that the pension fund is primed to be skimmed out from under the workers.
Now, in the general scale of the election, it mars his image but it's not a knock out blow. But as I've mentioned before, Romney's real challenge isn't in the general polling, where he's fairly close to Obama or ahead, but it's in the Electoral College, where he is at a distinct disadvantage. To beat Obama, Romney needs to convert most of the currently close races to him, and absolutely cannot afford to allow Obama to win any of the major battleground states. The challenge is that three of those states - Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio - are states which have been suffering for thirty years of jobs flowing out of the state to countries that can exploit cheaper labour. So Bain's record of out-sourcing American jobs to other countries is keenly felt.
On top of that, his less than transparent approach to his earnings and his off-shore accounts are feeding into the narrative like a perfectly designed loop; if Romney wasn't selling off American jobs to the highest bidder in order to pocket the profits and park them into dubious accounts in the Caymans and Switzerland, why won't he release his tax returns?'. The more Romney's camp doubles down on how the accusations are lies and more of 'politics as usual', the more that quest gets underlined. If Romney is legit, why is he hiding his wealth as strenuously as possible?
The most recent ad blitz is showing some very strong numbers trending independents away from Romney in all three states, and increasing Democrat engagement. While the polls are still fluid, the trending is unmistakable, If Romney loses both Ohio and Pennsylvania, it is almost impossible for him to defeat Obama. Unless he can find a way to effectively counter the Bain narrative, it really doesn't matter what points he scores on 'Obamacare' since it's not dominating the narrative in the states he has to win.
Much like when Kerry kept pivoting to try and nuance his position regarding Iraq, unless you can clearly message into the battleground states that shifts the momentum towards you with their key issues, it doesn't matter how happy you end up making your base. You'll still lose in the end.
