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An Uncomfortable Election
Mar. 25th, 2011 12:31 pmThe Canadian minority government will likely fall today, triggering an election for the late spring. The Conservatives, who have been dealt the first contempt charge in the history of the Canadian government, will go into the election with a commanding lead in the polls and a narrative based around their economic record. I talked in depth about the scandal here: http://dexfarkin.livejournal.com/238436.html
The thing is that the Conservative support is soft and there isn’t much left in terms of scandal outside of the ‘dead hooker/live boy’ realm left for the Conservatives to trip over for the Opposition to hope for. There is a point that you have to aim for an election on the issues (funny idea, that) and stick to them.
For the Conservatives to lose, the narrative has to be about the scandals; the broken promises, the secrecy, the scandals in undermining Parliament and Canadian government agencies like StatsCan. They need to take away the Conservative’s leading argument as competent stewards of the economy and put the praise in the hands of the Canadian banking system, both on the regulatory and financial sides.
The danger is that this is not the kind of campaign that the Liberal or NDP party excels at any longer. This was the kind of red-meat brawl that Jean Chretien would have won with ease. But his old guard were frozen out at the start of the Martin era, and as a result, the Liberal backroom is largely full of policy wonks or social scientists; not the hard-nosed operators who relish the melee of political combat. Up until last week, this would have been the perfect coming out party for Justin Trudeau, but he was spanked soundly by Harper on a rookie mistake, and squandered that chance.
For the Liberals to win, they need their own ‘coalition of the willing’; an endless parade of the disaffected from the last five years of Tory rule, each one hammering home on the fact that under a Conservative government, Canadians enjoy less democracy and less accountability from their government. That bankers and Premieres saved the Canadian economy from the global meltdown – not deft hands in Ottawa. That leadership isn’t about polls; it’s about trust. To not follow every pivot into the budget but instead lead back to vendettas against Canadian agencies that refuse to politicize their agenda in the favour of one party or another.
It is unlikely, but possible. The polls right now don’t matter – Harper is vulnerable, specifically because he’s the first prime minister in history to have his government declared to be in contempt of the House, and there’s a long history leading to this point. But if he can push Ignatieff to fighting this election on the Tories’ terms, he’s also got his real shot at a majority.
Strange times indeed.
The thing is that the Conservative support is soft and there isn’t much left in terms of scandal outside of the ‘dead hooker/live boy’ realm left for the Conservatives to trip over for the Opposition to hope for. There is a point that you have to aim for an election on the issues (funny idea, that) and stick to them.
For the Conservatives to lose, the narrative has to be about the scandals; the broken promises, the secrecy, the scandals in undermining Parliament and Canadian government agencies like StatsCan. They need to take away the Conservative’s leading argument as competent stewards of the economy and put the praise in the hands of the Canadian banking system, both on the regulatory and financial sides.
The danger is that this is not the kind of campaign that the Liberal or NDP party excels at any longer. This was the kind of red-meat brawl that Jean Chretien would have won with ease. But his old guard were frozen out at the start of the Martin era, and as a result, the Liberal backroom is largely full of policy wonks or social scientists; not the hard-nosed operators who relish the melee of political combat. Up until last week, this would have been the perfect coming out party for Justin Trudeau, but he was spanked soundly by Harper on a rookie mistake, and squandered that chance.
For the Liberals to win, they need their own ‘coalition of the willing’; an endless parade of the disaffected from the last five years of Tory rule, each one hammering home on the fact that under a Conservative government, Canadians enjoy less democracy and less accountability from their government. That bankers and Premieres saved the Canadian economy from the global meltdown – not deft hands in Ottawa. That leadership isn’t about polls; it’s about trust. To not follow every pivot into the budget but instead lead back to vendettas against Canadian agencies that refuse to politicize their agenda in the favour of one party or another.
It is unlikely, but possible. The polls right now don’t matter – Harper is vulnerable, specifically because he’s the first prime minister in history to have his government declared to be in contempt of the House, and there’s a long history leading to this point. But if he can push Ignatieff to fighting this election on the Tories’ terms, he’s also got his real shot at a majority.
Strange times indeed.
