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The Harper Election
Mar. 8th, 2011 03:10 pmCanadian politics can be a fickle thing. Right now, two issues have come to the forefront; a recent poll regarding the potential support for each party, and the rumours of an Opposition Non-Confidence vote being held to force an election.
Ipsos Reid's new poll listed the Tories at 43% of Canadians. The Liberals were stuck at 27% and the NDP further at at 13%. Awful numbers that indicate that if an election were held today, the Conservatives would return with a majority government.
So why would the Opposition risk an election in an environment like this? Well, for once, they seem to have gotten smart. The Conservatives will table the federal budget on March 22, and if the election comes out of a non-confidence vote on the budget, the dominant election theme will be the budget and the economy; two areas that the Conservatives will pound the Opposition to death with in a general election.
However, a successful vote of non-confidence beforehand over the actions of the government allows the Opposition to highlight the following recent scandals:
Four senior Conservatives charged with willfully exceeding spending limits in the 2006 campaign. This “in and out” financing scheme came at the same time that Stephen Harper was campaigning on government transparency and accountability.
International Co-operation Minister Bev Oda's document-altering scandal featuring forged and altered documents to CIDA. Minister Oda refuses to answer any further questions about her role in this affair (believed to be coordinated from the PMO).
The departure of the Conservative integrity commissioner, who received 228 whistleblowing complaints and upheld not a single one. She received a half million dollar severance in exchange for a gag order.
Immigration Minister Jason Kenney using his ministerial letterhead to raise money for the Conservative Party.
There was also a contempt of Parliament motion brought against the government for its refusal to disclose basic information on the costs of crime bills and on corporate profits.
The appointment of Tom Pentefountas as vice-chairman of the CRTC, dispite his zero experience in telecommunications.
And my personal favourite, the Prime Minister is insisting that “Government of Canada” nomenclature be changed to “the Harper government.”
One of the reasons that the Conservatives haven't been able to win a majority against a historically weak Liberal party is that Canadians don't entirely trust them. They feel that they are better stewards of the economy after years of Liberal malfeasance, and yet, there's a strong sense that the Conservatives are hiding an agenda that is antithetical to Canadian values, just waiting for an opportunity. In the last two election cycles, late comments that hinted to this kind of disconnect cost them the margin of victory, and the Opposition is doubling down thinking that pushing a brutal 18 months of scandal can push them past the economic issues.
It's surprisingly gutsy for the spineless Liberals and the negligible NDP. But it's also dangerous. If Harper can pivot the election and fight it on economic terms, he'll have his majority. If he can't, not only will it be a minority at best, but the cracks in the Conservative bloc will grow much deeper. The Conservative bench is thin, in part thanks to Harper's unwillingness to share power and his top-down management style. If he's forced out of the leadership, they'll be hard pressed to find someone able to juggle the fractured base as effectively.
Ipsos Reid's new poll listed the Tories at 43% of Canadians. The Liberals were stuck at 27% and the NDP further at at 13%. Awful numbers that indicate that if an election were held today, the Conservatives would return with a majority government.
So why would the Opposition risk an election in an environment like this? Well, for once, they seem to have gotten smart. The Conservatives will table the federal budget on March 22, and if the election comes out of a non-confidence vote on the budget, the dominant election theme will be the budget and the economy; two areas that the Conservatives will pound the Opposition to death with in a general election.
However, a successful vote of non-confidence beforehand over the actions of the government allows the Opposition to highlight the following recent scandals:
One of the reasons that the Conservatives haven't been able to win a majority against a historically weak Liberal party is that Canadians don't entirely trust them. They feel that they are better stewards of the economy after years of Liberal malfeasance, and yet, there's a strong sense that the Conservatives are hiding an agenda that is antithetical to Canadian values, just waiting for an opportunity. In the last two election cycles, late comments that hinted to this kind of disconnect cost them the margin of victory, and the Opposition is doubling down thinking that pushing a brutal 18 months of scandal can push them past the economic issues.
It's surprisingly gutsy for the spineless Liberals and the negligible NDP. But it's also dangerous. If Harper can pivot the election and fight it on economic terms, he'll have his majority. If he can't, not only will it be a minority at best, but the cracks in the Conservative bloc will grow much deeper. The Conservative bench is thin, in part thanks to Harper's unwillingness to share power and his top-down management style. If he's forced out of the leadership, they'll be hard pressed to find someone able to juggle the fractured base as effectively.
