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The Great Zoltar
Nov. 4th, 2008 12:07 pmThis is the time every four years that I get to look silly, because I dare to call out the election results ahead of time. Beat that, you little Russian bastard!
*ahem*
Anyhow, I'm not going to get into House races for the sheer volume of them, but I believe that it will be a bloodbath for the GOP, although not the complete collapse that some are gleefully expecting. The GOP GOTV is still very good, and despite a poorly run Presidential campaign, their volunteer base will carry some of the narrowly contested races across the country. My guess is that the Republicans will hold on to 185-190 seats at the end of the day.
In the Senate, it's a bad time to be a Republican. None of the incumbent Democratic senators are in any kind of risk to lose their seats, which is a blow to the party, since at the very least Landrieu was vulnerable and they recruited a former Democrat to challenge her. But Kennedy's numbers have gone into the toilet, and it looks like Landrieu is safe.
The same cannot be said for the Republican incumbents. Ted Stevens will rightly lose his seat to Mark Begich following his conviction on corruption charges. Saxby Chambliss is scrambling to hold off Jim Martin in Georgia, and while this one will go down to the wire, I think Chambliss will squeak by, holding his seat. Wayne Allard's old seat in Colorado will be handily won by Mark Udall. Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority leader, ended up with a race against Bruce Lunsford that shouldn't have been close. Despite the fact that the polls have finally started trending back McConnell's way, I think this one will be the surprise upset. Lunsford's GOTV in Kentucky is very organized, very dedicated, and well funded. Norm Coleman should hold his seat against Al Franken, but the ground game is key in Minnesota. Both men have traded off leads regularly, and GOTV will be the only deciding factor.
Up in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen should coast to victory over John Sununu. Tom Udall should do the same over Steve Pearce in New Mexico. Elizabeth Dole's 'godless' claim about Kay Hagan pretty much tanked her chances, and Hagan should win by at least 5%. Merkley's taken and held the lead in Oregon over Gordon Smith, which I think will hold up, but this will be one of the tightest races this cycle. Mark Warner will crush Jim Gilmore easily to pick up Virginia.
That should bring the Democrats up to 57 seats, with 2 independents caucusing with them. If extremely wide coattails come from Obama's national campaign, they could potentially pick up Minnesota, Georgia, and Mississippi as well, but it's extremely unlikely. Best case for the Republicans is that they hold Kentucky, Georgia, Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina, keeping the Democrats to 54 seats.
For the big contest, I think Obama wins the popular vote around 50% to 46%. McCain will get a small bump from poor weather conditions and GOP support solidifying around him today. But he will not get the independent break he wants. I see the independents breaking fairly evenly, but in low numbers in general.
In the Electoral College, my prediction is Democrats: 353 Republicans: 185
Obama will hold on to leads in Virginia and Nevada, and will win in Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.
McCain will hold on to leads in Arizona and South Dakota, and will win in Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri.
The only way McCain can win is to win all the races within the margin of error in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. After that, he needs to overcome Democratic leads in Virginia and Pennsylvania to swing enough votes in his direction. Despite the assurances of William Kristol, I'm dubious. All Obama really needs to do is hold Pennsylvania to win, and it has stayed fairly consistently Democratic since mid-September.
EDIT: Huh. Well, I pretty much nailed the EC, save for Indiana. I thought McCain would carry it, but Obama hugely outperformed in the rural parts of the state. Popular vote is 52-47%, so I'll take three percentage points. Senate was almost correct. My long shot in McConnell didn't work out, but 53-47% against a sitting party leader is pretty damn close. The idea that Stevens is ahead fills me with disgust, especially since it represents a 13% shift in the polls. I was wrong about the House though. The gleeful bloodbath predictors turned out to be correct.
*ahem*
Anyhow, I'm not going to get into House races for the sheer volume of them, but I believe that it will be a bloodbath for the GOP, although not the complete collapse that some are gleefully expecting. The GOP GOTV is still very good, and despite a poorly run Presidential campaign, their volunteer base will carry some of the narrowly contested races across the country. My guess is that the Republicans will hold on to 185-190 seats at the end of the day.
In the Senate, it's a bad time to be a Republican. None of the incumbent Democratic senators are in any kind of risk to lose their seats, which is a blow to the party, since at the very least Landrieu was vulnerable and they recruited a former Democrat to challenge her. But Kennedy's numbers have gone into the toilet, and it looks like Landrieu is safe.
The same cannot be said for the Republican incumbents. Ted Stevens will rightly lose his seat to Mark Begich following his conviction on corruption charges. Saxby Chambliss is scrambling to hold off Jim Martin in Georgia, and while this one will go down to the wire, I think Chambliss will squeak by, holding his seat. Wayne Allard's old seat in Colorado will be handily won by Mark Udall. Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority leader, ended up with a race against Bruce Lunsford that shouldn't have been close. Despite the fact that the polls have finally started trending back McConnell's way, I think this one will be the surprise upset. Lunsford's GOTV in Kentucky is very organized, very dedicated, and well funded. Norm Coleman should hold his seat against Al Franken, but the ground game is key in Minnesota. Both men have traded off leads regularly, and GOTV will be the only deciding factor.
Up in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen should coast to victory over John Sununu. Tom Udall should do the same over Steve Pearce in New Mexico. Elizabeth Dole's 'godless' claim about Kay Hagan pretty much tanked her chances, and Hagan should win by at least 5%. Merkley's taken and held the lead in Oregon over Gordon Smith, which I think will hold up, but this will be one of the tightest races this cycle. Mark Warner will crush Jim Gilmore easily to pick up Virginia.
That should bring the Democrats up to 57 seats, with 2 independents caucusing with them. If extremely wide coattails come from Obama's national campaign, they could potentially pick up Minnesota, Georgia, and Mississippi as well, but it's extremely unlikely. Best case for the Republicans is that they hold Kentucky, Georgia, Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina, keeping the Democrats to 54 seats.
For the big contest, I think Obama wins the popular vote around 50% to 46%. McCain will get a small bump from poor weather conditions and GOP support solidifying around him today. But he will not get the independent break he wants. I see the independents breaking fairly evenly, but in low numbers in general.
In the Electoral College, my prediction is Democrats: 353 Republicans: 185
Obama will hold on to leads in Virginia and Nevada, and will win in Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.
McCain will hold on to leads in Arizona and South Dakota, and will win in Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri.
The only way McCain can win is to win all the races within the margin of error in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. After that, he needs to overcome Democratic leads in Virginia and Pennsylvania to swing enough votes in his direction. Despite the assurances of William Kristol, I'm dubious. All Obama really needs to do is hold Pennsylvania to win, and it has stayed fairly consistently Democratic since mid-September.
EDIT: Huh. Well, I pretty much nailed the EC, save for Indiana. I thought McCain would carry it, but Obama hugely outperformed in the rural parts of the state. Popular vote is 52-47%, so I'll take three percentage points. Senate was almost correct. My long shot in McConnell didn't work out, but 53-47% against a sitting party leader is pretty damn close. The idea that Stevens is ahead fills me with disgust, especially since it represents a 13% shift in the polls. I was wrong about the House though. The gleeful bloodbath predictors turned out to be correct.
