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Post-Election
Oct. 21st, 2008 09:16 pmLooks like Harper got his 3% shift, but did it where people weren't expecting; Ontario. Harper's Conservatives grabbed 144 seats, just 11 shy of the 155 mark of a majority. While he did outperform his last election result by over 20 seats, anyone who thinks the party bosses at the top of the Conservative Party are happy should think again.
Harper is on his third election, and his second minority government. He's shown growth and progress with each election, and has seized the government for the Conservatives, breaking a 13 year hold by the Liberals. However, in 2003, 2006 and 2008, each time he's made comments during the tightening days of the race which have allowed his opponents to flash the 'scary Western Guns, God, and Kill the Gays; label which sinks his candidates in Ontario and Quebec. It's been effective in each election because he opens himself up to that very branding by his own actions.
Harper also went up against a third-rate leader, a fractured and fractious Liberal Party, two other left of centre parties with strong leaders splitting the vote, and ultimately the worst showing by his chief rivals since Conferation. And he won a minority slightly stronger than the one he called the election on. The Conservatives should have had a historic majority in the bag on this election, and they managed to make Dion look like an acceptable alternative. Harper should not be sitting comfortably on his position if he's smart.
And the Liberals. What can you say about them? I hate to admit it, but there's a big part of me that is enjoying the endlessly corrupt, supremely arrogant, and unprincipled opportunistic bastards getting a well deserved comeuppance. Clinging desperately to glories of the past, fighting over smaller and smaller domains of power in the party, the Liberals have hit rock bottom, dug down past that until they struck oil, and then struck a match. Sadly, I can't even enjoy it wholly since my own political party was subsumed by a group of chest thumping isolationist pseudo-Bible thumping hacks from the West.
Where do they go? Well, one advantage of getting burned right down to the bedrock is that sometimes, it makes people stop and try and figure out the big picture. If they're lucky, this shattering loss has knocked a little hubris out of the Liberal party, and they can focus on the rebuilding that should have started in 2006. The Liberal's membership structure, fund raising, and candidate recruitment all need drastic overhaul if they're going to be able to put a credible challenge up in the next election. A significant percentage of politics is in the mechanics; how many volunteers making calls, working GOTV projects, recruiting new members, organizing party fundraising event. The Liberal's moribund infrastructure needs significant investment, revision and growth if the party is going to right itself.
Past that, the Liberals need to re-establish their brand. Since 1996, the Liberal Party has basically stood as the party of convenience for Canadians. If you didn't feel strongly enough right for the Conservatives, or left for the NDP, or you didn't live in Quebec and voted BQ, you pretty much were left with the Liberals. They became the party of 'enh'. Hardly stuff to inspire the rank and file. Worse, they are infamous as the party that stands for whatever's needed to get elected; a light joke when their majorities were crushing the other parties, and now a dangerously toxic perception while mired in electoral purgatory.
The Liberals need to prepare a cohesive need policy program; a 'Red Book' for 2008 and beyond, that clearly outlines the principles of the party and how that applies to the policies of their candidates. They need to identify their electorate, instead of wafting back and forth without a plan. The Liberals have dangerously shifted to engage the left in searching for votes, while seeding the entire centre-right spectrum to the Conservatives, a highly dangerous idea. The old Progressive Conservative 'Red Tory' base is still highly volatile, unable to really attach themselves to the new Conservatives, deeply suspicious of the West's love of social conservatism, while not seeing much difference between the Liberals and the NDP. A re-alignment back to the centre, with wide wings into policies that touch both extremes has been the key to Liberal power for years, and would be so again.
Targeting growth is the other key. The Liberals are traditionally an urban party, and they've allowed the NDP and the Conservatives to co-opt that. The need to focus on five key areas: Southwestern Ontario, Montreal suburbs, Vancouver suburbs, Northern Ontario, Winnipeg. All of these were traditionally Liberal strongholds, and most are still variable in terms of political support. The Liberals must rebuild their infrastructure, and while serving as a proper opposition in Parliament, they must be looking ahead to the next election and implementing a strategy to regain ground and re-establish their own national firewalls as a basis to try and take back the government.
Or, they'll simply tear each other to pieces, fighting over the last scraps like a pack of mangy hounds.
BTW: As a bonus, my picks for the initial round of Liberal leadership candidates who aren't completely laughable.
Bob Rae
Michael Ignatieff
John Manley
Frank McKenna
Gerard Kennedy
Dominic Leblanc
Martha Hall Findlay
Harper is on his third election, and his second minority government. He's shown growth and progress with each election, and has seized the government for the Conservatives, breaking a 13 year hold by the Liberals. However, in 2003, 2006 and 2008, each time he's made comments during the tightening days of the race which have allowed his opponents to flash the 'scary Western Guns, God, and Kill the Gays; label which sinks his candidates in Ontario and Quebec. It's been effective in each election because he opens himself up to that very branding by his own actions.
Harper also went up against a third-rate leader, a fractured and fractious Liberal Party, two other left of centre parties with strong leaders splitting the vote, and ultimately the worst showing by his chief rivals since Conferation. And he won a minority slightly stronger than the one he called the election on. The Conservatives should have had a historic majority in the bag on this election, and they managed to make Dion look like an acceptable alternative. Harper should not be sitting comfortably on his position if he's smart.
And the Liberals. What can you say about them? I hate to admit it, but there's a big part of me that is enjoying the endlessly corrupt, supremely arrogant, and unprincipled opportunistic bastards getting a well deserved comeuppance. Clinging desperately to glories of the past, fighting over smaller and smaller domains of power in the party, the Liberals have hit rock bottom, dug down past that until they struck oil, and then struck a match. Sadly, I can't even enjoy it wholly since my own political party was subsumed by a group of chest thumping isolationist pseudo-Bible thumping hacks from the West.
Where do they go? Well, one advantage of getting burned right down to the bedrock is that sometimes, it makes people stop and try and figure out the big picture. If they're lucky, this shattering loss has knocked a little hubris out of the Liberal party, and they can focus on the rebuilding that should have started in 2006. The Liberal's membership structure, fund raising, and candidate recruitment all need drastic overhaul if they're going to be able to put a credible challenge up in the next election. A significant percentage of politics is in the mechanics; how many volunteers making calls, working GOTV projects, recruiting new members, organizing party fundraising event. The Liberal's moribund infrastructure needs significant investment, revision and growth if the party is going to right itself.
Past that, the Liberals need to re-establish their brand. Since 1996, the Liberal Party has basically stood as the party of convenience for Canadians. If you didn't feel strongly enough right for the Conservatives, or left for the NDP, or you didn't live in Quebec and voted BQ, you pretty much were left with the Liberals. They became the party of 'enh'. Hardly stuff to inspire the rank and file. Worse, they are infamous as the party that stands for whatever's needed to get elected; a light joke when their majorities were crushing the other parties, and now a dangerously toxic perception while mired in electoral purgatory.
The Liberals need to prepare a cohesive need policy program; a 'Red Book' for 2008 and beyond, that clearly outlines the principles of the party and how that applies to the policies of their candidates. They need to identify their electorate, instead of wafting back and forth without a plan. The Liberals have dangerously shifted to engage the left in searching for votes, while seeding the entire centre-right spectrum to the Conservatives, a highly dangerous idea. The old Progressive Conservative 'Red Tory' base is still highly volatile, unable to really attach themselves to the new Conservatives, deeply suspicious of the West's love of social conservatism, while not seeing much difference between the Liberals and the NDP. A re-alignment back to the centre, with wide wings into policies that touch both extremes has been the key to Liberal power for years, and would be so again.
Targeting growth is the other key. The Liberals are traditionally an urban party, and they've allowed the NDP and the Conservatives to co-opt that. The need to focus on five key areas: Southwestern Ontario, Montreal suburbs, Vancouver suburbs, Northern Ontario, Winnipeg. All of these were traditionally Liberal strongholds, and most are still variable in terms of political support. The Liberals must rebuild their infrastructure, and while serving as a proper opposition in Parliament, they must be looking ahead to the next election and implementing a strategy to regain ground and re-establish their own national firewalls as a basis to try and take back the government.
Or, they'll simply tear each other to pieces, fighting over the last scraps like a pack of mangy hounds.
BTW: As a bonus, my picks for the initial round of Liberal leadership candidates who aren't completely laughable.
Bob Rae
Michael Ignatieff
John Manley
Frank McKenna
Gerard Kennedy
Dominic Leblanc
Martha Hall Findlay
