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Oct. 2nd, 2008
Tonight VP Debate
Oct. 2nd, 2008 07:45 pmJust a note since everyone seems to be talking about it. Palin already won the debate before even showing up. The Couric interview was so unbelievably disasterous that unless Palin forgets what state she's from or refers to the Middle East as Arab-Land, she will look better. I personally doubt the people who are saying that she's formidable debating, since it really doesn't matter. As she has to do to win is not be as bad as people are expecting.
In a pre-debate situation, McCain's handlers will have prepped her to the point of madness, and so long as she stays to her script, she'll be fine. She certainly will be using materials prepared by someone else and an opinion shaped by the campaign and not her own experience, but debates at this level are scripted affairs with little room for individual variance.
The question will be is it enough to reverse the damage that's been done. Her unfavourables have skyrocketed, and the percentage of voters who believe she'd capable of assuming the presidency has dropped almost 50% in just three weeks. Palin can't win the election in this debate, but she can lose it if she flubs badly enough.
However, again, it won't happen. Palin lacks both experience and knowledge, but she's not dumb, and even in Alaska, it's not a simple task to be elected Governor. The GOP will have very carefully prepped her, to the point that all she has to do is dive back into material already vetted to stay safe. She does that, Biden cannot win. He gets too aggressive or too condesending and it will be his numbers that take the hit regardless of whether or not she can answer. There is a very strong current of anti-intellectualism in the US, and someone like Joe Biden, who can't resist showing off his knowledge, is going to look like a smart-mouthed liberal egghead trying to prove he's better than common as muck skidoo mom Palin. He'll drop with women, with the elderly, and with young men, all areas Obama desperately needs. Similar to Palin, Biden can't lose the election in the debate, but he can singlehandedly reverse all the damage of the Couric interview to the McCain campaign in one night.
The only x-factor here for both candidates is ego. If Palin goes off the script trying to prove everyone commenting about the interview wrong, she'll get creamed. If Biden thinks he's got the advantage and tries to dominate the debate, he'll likewise get it in the teeth. Is that likely to happen in the debate? If it does, it will be the only new thing you'll here during the entire night.
In a pre-debate situation, McCain's handlers will have prepped her to the point of madness, and so long as she stays to her script, she'll be fine. She certainly will be using materials prepared by someone else and an opinion shaped by the campaign and not her own experience, but debates at this level are scripted affairs with little room for individual variance.
The question will be is it enough to reverse the damage that's been done. Her unfavourables have skyrocketed, and the percentage of voters who believe she'd capable of assuming the presidency has dropped almost 50% in just three weeks. Palin can't win the election in this debate, but she can lose it if she flubs badly enough.
However, again, it won't happen. Palin lacks both experience and knowledge, but she's not dumb, and even in Alaska, it's not a simple task to be elected Governor. The GOP will have very carefully prepped her, to the point that all she has to do is dive back into material already vetted to stay safe. She does that, Biden cannot win. He gets too aggressive or too condesending and it will be his numbers that take the hit regardless of whether or not she can answer. There is a very strong current of anti-intellectualism in the US, and someone like Joe Biden, who can't resist showing off his knowledge, is going to look like a smart-mouthed liberal egghead trying to prove he's better than common as muck skidoo mom Palin. He'll drop with women, with the elderly, and with young men, all areas Obama desperately needs. Similar to Palin, Biden can't lose the election in the debate, but he can singlehandedly reverse all the damage of the Couric interview to the McCain campaign in one night.
The only x-factor here for both candidates is ego. If Palin goes off the script trying to prove everyone commenting about the interview wrong, she'll get creamed. If Biden thinks he's got the advantage and tries to dominate the debate, he'll likewise get it in the teeth. Is that likely to happen in the debate? If it does, it will be the only new thing you'll here during the entire night.