![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
The Canadian Election
Dec. 1st, 2005 04:50 pmMuch longer post to come, but just some general points.
First of all, the Canadian government was not 'toppled by scandal'. And thank you, Fox News, for boiling the issue down to the intelligence of the average baked potato. I've explained this before, but how parlimentary politics work is that the government rules with the consent or 'confidence' of the parliment. If the government loses certain types of votes, or loses a vote of non-confidence, it lacks the right to continue to govern in the name of the elected representatives and must dissolve parliment and call for an election. This is not a common thing, but it's also not rare in minority governments. In fact, many minority governments have called elections as a compromise with their counterparts to avoid such motions. While the Gomery inquiry is certainly a factor, the real reason this vote went through is that the NDP and the Liberals could not find common ground on the recent health care ruling in Quebec, and Layton signled the Conservatives that he would support the vote. The inquiry/scandel is the excuse for it.
Now, what does this mean? Looking at it, with 57 days to go, the likely breakdown is going to be Lib: 125, Con: 103, PQ: 61, NDP: 28. Now, these numbers can change at a heartbeat, but the basic situation is easy. The Liberals are the culture of corruption, which is going to play well in two places; the Prairies and Quebec. The Conservatives already have the prairies sown up, so it will likely drive votes to the NDP, as opposed to them, and to the PQ in Quebec. The Liberals have made gains in BC and the Maritimes, and haven't lost much ground in Ontario. More importantly, Harper brought out the same sex gun right off the bat in Ontario, so say goodnight to about 80% of the GTA ridings. He'll likely pick up ten seats in Ontario, and lose five scattered in the Maritimes and BC. The NDP will grab bits and pieces from here and there. The Liberals are going to be losing and gaining seats all over the place. They'll gain in BC and in the Maritimes, flip some in Ontario, and lose the main block in Quebec. I really don't see much movement for any of the parties, and another election in eighteen months after.
First of all, the Canadian government was not 'toppled by scandal'. And thank you, Fox News, for boiling the issue down to the intelligence of the average baked potato. I've explained this before, but how parlimentary politics work is that the government rules with the consent or 'confidence' of the parliment. If the government loses certain types of votes, or loses a vote of non-confidence, it lacks the right to continue to govern in the name of the elected representatives and must dissolve parliment and call for an election. This is not a common thing, but it's also not rare in minority governments. In fact, many minority governments have called elections as a compromise with their counterparts to avoid such motions. While the Gomery inquiry is certainly a factor, the real reason this vote went through is that the NDP and the Liberals could not find common ground on the recent health care ruling in Quebec, and Layton signled the Conservatives that he would support the vote. The inquiry/scandel is the excuse for it.
Now, what does this mean? Looking at it, with 57 days to go, the likely breakdown is going to be Lib: 125, Con: 103, PQ: 61, NDP: 28. Now, these numbers can change at a heartbeat, but the basic situation is easy. The Liberals are the culture of corruption, which is going to play well in two places; the Prairies and Quebec. The Conservatives already have the prairies sown up, so it will likely drive votes to the NDP, as opposed to them, and to the PQ in Quebec. The Liberals have made gains in BC and the Maritimes, and haven't lost much ground in Ontario. More importantly, Harper brought out the same sex gun right off the bat in Ontario, so say goodnight to about 80% of the GTA ridings. He'll likely pick up ten seats in Ontario, and lose five scattered in the Maritimes and BC. The NDP will grab bits and pieces from here and there. The Liberals are going to be losing and gaining seats all over the place. They'll gain in BC and in the Maritimes, flip some in Ontario, and lose the main block in Quebec. I really don't see much movement for any of the parties, and another election in eighteen months after.
