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2008 Republican Presidential Rumble!
Where the GOP gets down and dirty(er)!
Here are my thoughts on the Republican Primaries of 2007 as of now, simply because it's going to be the most entertaining eight months of lunancy. I'd do this for the Democrats, except unless a major meltdown occurs, the Democratic nominee for President is going to be Hiliary Clinton, with about six solid possibilities for her running mate.
On a totally random aside, the Demcrats have a moderately deep bench to work from, and could push a 'team' stratagy that not only underscores the Presidency, but also the cabinet.
As for the Republicans, giant frickin' brawling catfight. Should be fun.
George Allen: (Senator, Virginia)
In my opinion, the most credible and dangerous possible candidate that the GOP could field against the Democrats. Allen has a log record in several levels of government, in each where he has performed with notable competance. His time as chairman of the NRSC means he's earned a lot of political capital to spend within his own party, and his base in the stable near South of Virginia is relatively stable.
The negatives are that he is a senator, although with his term as the Governor of Virginia, the traditional danger is severely reduced. Allen has spoken out against the excesses of the fundamental wing of the GOP base, which could hurt his chances in the primaries. He could emerge as a consenus candidate for the GOP, and his early positioning seems to indicate a solid, defensive campaign geared towards that.
Sam Brownback: (Senator, Kansas)
Brownback polls extremely low nationally, due to his relatively unknown status outside of Kansas. He has taken up the mantle of the almost now officially irrelevent Santorum as the defender of the hard right Christian base, with his redmeat comparisons of abortion to the Holocaust and strident opposition of same-sex marriage. It is unlikely that he will last past the early primaries, but the power of the GOP religious base, especially in the face of a moderate candiate, could see him slotted into a VP spot in the running.
Jeb Bush: (Governor of Florida)
Says he won't run. Swears he won't run. 2007 will tell the real story. Despite the wet dreams of a lot of the GOP, Jeb would combine all of the worst selling points of the Bush dynesty. Through name recognition, he'd inherit a chunk of George W. Bush's pathetic 36% approval rating, as well as the baggage of the Schiavo fiasco. His far right positioning would delight a large part of the base, but it is unlikely he'd do much better than his brother on Independents, currently hovering at 25% approval. He should listen to his wife on this and keep out, considering how fast he'd be made radioactive.
Dick Cheney: (VP, Wyoming)
The name shouldn't even be there save for the fact that Bob Woodward keeps saying Cheney is a serious dark horse candiate. Woodward has an alarming tendency in being right about this stuff, so let's look at the current VP for fun.
If he runs, he wins the nomination. Period. 2007 will be about deciding who gets to be Dick's VP. Immensely popular with the GOP base, and despite having all the charisma of a toothache, considered relatively benign by Independents, he would front a strong GOP ticket, which would likely come down to a similar model as 2004.
Bob Ehrlich: (Governor of Maryland)
A non-entity. The first time Governor of Maryland lacks both domestic and foriegn experience to make a real legitimate run at the nomination. As well, Maryland is hardly a strong base to run out of, especially with neighbouring Virginia drawing money and votes. Ehrlich has been having difficulties tying together coalitions for his agenda out of a deeply divided state house, which tells little for his ability to tie in highly disparte groups in the Republican primaries.
Ernie Fletcher: (Governor of Kentucky)
Save for the fact that Fletcher is one of the six GOP governors currently caught up in a corruption scandal, he might have had a run. However, Kentucky seems to be going Ohio very rapidly, and especially with the culture of corruption mantra the Democrats will be using, they won't touch Fletcher with a ten foot pole.
Bill Frist: (Senate Majority Leader, Tennessee)
Ah, Dr.Billy, the annoited son after he gutted Lott and tossed him to the vultures. Only trouble is that Frist has proven that he can't handle the Republican majority with the same iron-fisted Stalin-esque control that Gingrich and Lott possessed. His relentless tack to the right, and obnoxiously opprotunistic leap into the Schiavo affair severely undermined his credibility, and now the Gang of 14 and his reversal on stem cells has pretty much underlined his undesirability to both the base and to the moderates.
That all being said, Frist will run and hang on in the primaries. You don't get to be the Leader of the House without a few markers, and he hasn't called them all in yet. Most likely, he'll hold a block during the first dozen states, and then cut a deal.
Newt Gingrich: (Former Speaker of the House, Georgia)
Gingrich has been out of power for almost six years, and will be topping on eight by the time the primaries roll around. Still a powerful force in the conservative movement, he's recently positioned himself in a more moderate tone, suggesting a series of middle stances in policy. The release of his new book and his recent tours into Iowa and New Hampshire suggest that he could try for the nomination.
Newt actually does have a couple of significant factors in his favour; he's still well considered through much of the GOP base, even the evangelicals. While the defeats in 1998 broke his influence, the time span between has transformed the failed powerbroker image to the 'elder statesman' ideal. Gingrich is certainly an outside candiate, but like Allen, could easily end up profiting as a bridge between moderate and conservative Republican demands.
Rudy Giuliani: (Former NYC mayor)
Giuliani, the much beloved 9/11 mayor of NYC, who proved that three weeks of doing your job makes up for seven years of police terrorism and unaccountability. Guiliani is much touted as the serious frontrunner for the nomination, trading spaces with John McCain. He has a high name recognition, and like Bush, frequently invokes highly effective 9/11 images and emotions for his support.
Unfortunately for him, Giuliani is the bogeyman of the Dobson 'Focus on the Family' section of the GOP that wields enormous power over the party. There are already organizations in place to challenge him should he try for the nomination, and the GOP is very good at marginalizing strong candiates (Max Cleland, anyone?) While Guiliani would be an extremely strong candiate for the Republicans, I can't see the GOP base reconciling with his pro-choice stance. If anything, you'll see Rudy as a 'moderate' VP candiate to a stricter conservative nominee.
John McCain: (Senator, Arizona)
McCain, the 'should-have-been, never-was' presidential candiate will likely step into the nomination circle again in 2007. Again, like Giuliani, McCain possesses vast name recognition and popularity as the 'maverick' senator from Arizona. However, 'maverick' senators really get the party's nod for power. While McCain is a great deal more conservative than the media seems to realize, the GOP base is deeply divided on the man.
Again, like Giuliani, McCain will face a formidable far-right wing smear machine against him, enjoying the favour of none of the powerful punditry that formed one of the conservative trifecta's pillars. His part in the Group of 14, as well as his 'RINO' status will be formidable obstecles to overcome. I just don't see him being able to turn his name recognition and national popularity into party support.
George Pataki: (Governor of New York)
Man, why? All the negative points of Giuliani with none of the support or name recognition. Part of his reasons for not seeking another term as governor are the polls that show Eliot Spitzer wiping the floor with him. About the only thing Pataki has going for him is his now six year old health care extension and his status as sitting governor during the World Trade Centre attacks. Not a serious contender unless something remarkable happens. He and Al Sharpton can go for drinks after.
Tim Pawlenty: (Governor, Minnesota)
Considered a rising conservative star, the only reason his name is here is that his governorship has been moderately successful for the most part. Most of the criticism he's drawn has been from the far-right, although the highly political summer shutdown of the state has been hitting his base. While the GOP has been asking, I think Pawlenty is smart enough to get his house in order first and shore up his domestic credentials to match his already impressive foriegn trade experience.
Condoleeza Rice: (Soon to be Secretary of State, California)
She's not going to run. Shut up already. The ultimate GOP wet dream, the failure to realise Condi's spectacular incompetance as the National Security Advisor, utter lack of domestic experience, and near radioactive personality is as huge as any Deaniac mistake that the GOP points at. Rice is smart enough to know that she'd be dead in the water during any presidental run, however by armoring up at State, she could easily be reappointed by a 2008 win, and see a mid-term appointment to VP in 2012.
Mitt Romney: (Massachusetts Governor)
Another former fair-haired boy of the GOP, Romney is watching his chances slowly draft away. His repeated failures to make inroads into Massachusetts' levaithan Democratic majority and his increasingly mercenary look at polishing his pro-life credentials to appeal to the GOP base will cost him the stable base he needs to run from. Unlike a fringe candiate from a swing state, Massachusetts will go GOP the same election that Texas goes Democrat, so I see little incentive for Republicans to back Romney.
Tom Tancredo: (Congressman, Colorado)
Because every race needs a wild-eyed flat out psycho, Tancredo has decided to fill the role. A xenophobic anti-immigration nutball from Colorado, the man actually got himself barred from the White House by Turd Blossom himself. Tancredo actually has pretty good far right credentials being rabidly pro-life, pro-death penalty, anti-free trade, anti-gay marriage, and anti-multiculture. He is also supported by Pat Buchanan, and a number of other conversative and anti-immegration organizations. Tancredo could force the other candiates to take far more extreme positions than they normally would by pushing the dialogue from the centre. He can't win, but could end up framing the nomination, like Dean did in 2004. Democrats would be wise to make sure this man runs.
Here are my thoughts on the Republican Primaries of 2007 as of now, simply because it's going to be the most entertaining eight months of lunancy. I'd do this for the Democrats, except unless a major meltdown occurs, the Democratic nominee for President is going to be Hiliary Clinton, with about six solid possibilities for her running mate.
On a totally random aside, the Demcrats have a moderately deep bench to work from, and could push a 'team' stratagy that not only underscores the Presidency, but also the cabinet.
As for the Republicans, giant frickin' brawling catfight. Should be fun.
George Allen: (Senator, Virginia)
In my opinion, the most credible and dangerous possible candidate that the GOP could field against the Democrats. Allen has a log record in several levels of government, in each where he has performed with notable competance. His time as chairman of the NRSC means he's earned a lot of political capital to spend within his own party, and his base in the stable near South of Virginia is relatively stable.
The negatives are that he is a senator, although with his term as the Governor of Virginia, the traditional danger is severely reduced. Allen has spoken out against the excesses of the fundamental wing of the GOP base, which could hurt his chances in the primaries. He could emerge as a consenus candidate for the GOP, and his early positioning seems to indicate a solid, defensive campaign geared towards that.
Sam Brownback: (Senator, Kansas)
Brownback polls extremely low nationally, due to his relatively unknown status outside of Kansas. He has taken up the mantle of the almost now officially irrelevent Santorum as the defender of the hard right Christian base, with his redmeat comparisons of abortion to the Holocaust and strident opposition of same-sex marriage. It is unlikely that he will last past the early primaries, but the power of the GOP religious base, especially in the face of a moderate candiate, could see him slotted into a VP spot in the running.
Jeb Bush: (Governor of Florida)
Says he won't run. Swears he won't run. 2007 will tell the real story. Despite the wet dreams of a lot of the GOP, Jeb would combine all of the worst selling points of the Bush dynesty. Through name recognition, he'd inherit a chunk of George W. Bush's pathetic 36% approval rating, as well as the baggage of the Schiavo fiasco. His far right positioning would delight a large part of the base, but it is unlikely he'd do much better than his brother on Independents, currently hovering at 25% approval. He should listen to his wife on this and keep out, considering how fast he'd be made radioactive.
Dick Cheney: (VP, Wyoming)
The name shouldn't even be there save for the fact that Bob Woodward keeps saying Cheney is a serious dark horse candiate. Woodward has an alarming tendency in being right about this stuff, so let's look at the current VP for fun.
If he runs, he wins the nomination. Period. 2007 will be about deciding who gets to be Dick's VP. Immensely popular with the GOP base, and despite having all the charisma of a toothache, considered relatively benign by Independents, he would front a strong GOP ticket, which would likely come down to a similar model as 2004.
Bob Ehrlich: (Governor of Maryland)
A non-entity. The first time Governor of Maryland lacks both domestic and foriegn experience to make a real legitimate run at the nomination. As well, Maryland is hardly a strong base to run out of, especially with neighbouring Virginia drawing money and votes. Ehrlich has been having difficulties tying together coalitions for his agenda out of a deeply divided state house, which tells little for his ability to tie in highly disparte groups in the Republican primaries.
Ernie Fletcher: (Governor of Kentucky)
Save for the fact that Fletcher is one of the six GOP governors currently caught up in a corruption scandal, he might have had a run. However, Kentucky seems to be going Ohio very rapidly, and especially with the culture of corruption mantra the Democrats will be using, they won't touch Fletcher with a ten foot pole.
Bill Frist: (Senate Majority Leader, Tennessee)
Ah, Dr.Billy, the annoited son after he gutted Lott and tossed him to the vultures. Only trouble is that Frist has proven that he can't handle the Republican majority with the same iron-fisted Stalin-esque control that Gingrich and Lott possessed. His relentless tack to the right, and obnoxiously opprotunistic leap into the Schiavo affair severely undermined his credibility, and now the Gang of 14 and his reversal on stem cells has pretty much underlined his undesirability to both the base and to the moderates.
That all being said, Frist will run and hang on in the primaries. You don't get to be the Leader of the House without a few markers, and he hasn't called them all in yet. Most likely, he'll hold a block during the first dozen states, and then cut a deal.
Newt Gingrich: (Former Speaker of the House, Georgia)
Gingrich has been out of power for almost six years, and will be topping on eight by the time the primaries roll around. Still a powerful force in the conservative movement, he's recently positioned himself in a more moderate tone, suggesting a series of middle stances in policy. The release of his new book and his recent tours into Iowa and New Hampshire suggest that he could try for the nomination.
Newt actually does have a couple of significant factors in his favour; he's still well considered through much of the GOP base, even the evangelicals. While the defeats in 1998 broke his influence, the time span between has transformed the failed powerbroker image to the 'elder statesman' ideal. Gingrich is certainly an outside candiate, but like Allen, could easily end up profiting as a bridge between moderate and conservative Republican demands.
Rudy Giuliani: (Former NYC mayor)
Giuliani, the much beloved 9/11 mayor of NYC, who proved that three weeks of doing your job makes up for seven years of police terrorism and unaccountability. Guiliani is much touted as the serious frontrunner for the nomination, trading spaces with John McCain. He has a high name recognition, and like Bush, frequently invokes highly effective 9/11 images and emotions for his support.
Unfortunately for him, Giuliani is the bogeyman of the Dobson 'Focus on the Family' section of the GOP that wields enormous power over the party. There are already organizations in place to challenge him should he try for the nomination, and the GOP is very good at marginalizing strong candiates (Max Cleland, anyone?) While Guiliani would be an extremely strong candiate for the Republicans, I can't see the GOP base reconciling with his pro-choice stance. If anything, you'll see Rudy as a 'moderate' VP candiate to a stricter conservative nominee.
John McCain: (Senator, Arizona)
McCain, the 'should-have-been, never-was' presidential candiate will likely step into the nomination circle again in 2007. Again, like Giuliani, McCain possesses vast name recognition and popularity as the 'maverick' senator from Arizona. However, 'maverick' senators really get the party's nod for power. While McCain is a great deal more conservative than the media seems to realize, the GOP base is deeply divided on the man.
Again, like Giuliani, McCain will face a formidable far-right wing smear machine against him, enjoying the favour of none of the powerful punditry that formed one of the conservative trifecta's pillars. His part in the Group of 14, as well as his 'RINO' status will be formidable obstecles to overcome. I just don't see him being able to turn his name recognition and national popularity into party support.
George Pataki: (Governor of New York)
Man, why? All the negative points of Giuliani with none of the support or name recognition. Part of his reasons for not seeking another term as governor are the polls that show Eliot Spitzer wiping the floor with him. About the only thing Pataki has going for him is his now six year old health care extension and his status as sitting governor during the World Trade Centre attacks. Not a serious contender unless something remarkable happens. He and Al Sharpton can go for drinks after.
Tim Pawlenty: (Governor, Minnesota)
Considered a rising conservative star, the only reason his name is here is that his governorship has been moderately successful for the most part. Most of the criticism he's drawn has been from the far-right, although the highly political summer shutdown of the state has been hitting his base. While the GOP has been asking, I think Pawlenty is smart enough to get his house in order first and shore up his domestic credentials to match his already impressive foriegn trade experience.
Condoleeza Rice: (Soon to be Secretary of State, California)
She's not going to run. Shut up already. The ultimate GOP wet dream, the failure to realise Condi's spectacular incompetance as the National Security Advisor, utter lack of domestic experience, and near radioactive personality is as huge as any Deaniac mistake that the GOP points at. Rice is smart enough to know that she'd be dead in the water during any presidental run, however by armoring up at State, she could easily be reappointed by a 2008 win, and see a mid-term appointment to VP in 2012.
Mitt Romney: (Massachusetts Governor)
Another former fair-haired boy of the GOP, Romney is watching his chances slowly draft away. His repeated failures to make inroads into Massachusetts' levaithan Democratic majority and his increasingly mercenary look at polishing his pro-life credentials to appeal to the GOP base will cost him the stable base he needs to run from. Unlike a fringe candiate from a swing state, Massachusetts will go GOP the same election that Texas goes Democrat, so I see little incentive for Republicans to back Romney.
Tom Tancredo: (Congressman, Colorado)
Because every race needs a wild-eyed flat out psycho, Tancredo has decided to fill the role. A xenophobic anti-immigration nutball from Colorado, the man actually got himself barred from the White House by Turd Blossom himself. Tancredo actually has pretty good far right credentials being rabidly pro-life, pro-death penalty, anti-free trade, anti-gay marriage, and anti-multiculture. He is also supported by Pat Buchanan, and a number of other conversative and anti-immegration organizations. Tancredo could force the other candiates to take far more extreme positions than they normally would by pushing the dialogue from the centre. He can't win, but could end up framing the nomination, like Dean did in 2004. Democrats would be wise to make sure this man runs.